Week’s main events (July 31 – August 04)

This week’s main events will be data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States, as well as interest rate meetings of the central banks of England and Australia. Analysts forecast that both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates by 0.25%. Also, this week there will be a lot of macroeconomic statistics on manufacturing PMI and services PMI data which will give an indication of global economic trends in key economies for the first month of the third quarter.

Monday, July 31

On Monday, traders will focus on Eurozone inflation and second-quarter GDP data. GDP data is expected to show that the bloc’s economy returned to growth in the second quarter, with inflation expected to slow slightly.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, August 01

The main event on Tuesday will be the decision of Australia’s Central Bank on the interest rate. Australia’s Central Bank is expected to raise the interest rate by 0.25%. Volatility in currency pairs with the Australian dollar will increase. Traders should also pay attention to the US JOLTs Job Openings. Strong labor market data increase the likelihood of another rate hike by the US Fed. It’s a bank holiday in Switzerland.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Rate Statement (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, August 02

On Wednesday, traders should focus on New Zealand’s unemployment data. This data is published once a quarter and has a significant influence on the RBNZ policy. It is also worth paying attention to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy report, as the Bank of Japan is slowly shifting towards policy normalization. The US Crude Oil Reserves data, which has a great impact on oil prices, should also be in focus.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Unemployment Rate (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, August 03

On Thursday, traders will mainly focus on the Interest Rate Decisions from the Bank of England. According to preliminary data, the BOE is expected to hike rates by another 0.25% to curb inflation. The Bank of England has faced criticism from investors for lagging behind other central banks, with inflation the highest among developed economies. Also, on Thursday, Switzerland’s inflation data will be released. A slight decline in annual inflation of 0.1% is expected.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, August 04

The most important Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and this indicator is also taken into account by the Fed to adjust monetary policy. Indications of continued strength in the labor market could add to bets on how aggressive the Fed may be in tightening monetary policy at the September meeting. Traders should also keep a close eye on the Canadian market labor data.

Main events of the day:

– Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2023.07.31

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