Week’s main events (May 06 – May 10)

This week will be less economically eventful than the previous one. The main events will be the meetings of the central banks of the United Kingdom and Australia. The BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged. While Bank of England officials were openly discussing the possibility of a rate cut earlier this year, recent economic data showed a mixed picture of price pressures in the British economy, causing markets to postpone expectations of the first rate cut to September since June. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet on Tuesday amid better-than-expected first-quarter inflation data and data pointing to continued labor market strength. The RBA is not expected to make any changes, but market participants will keep a close eye on comments from Governor Michele Bullock. Traders will also watch if lower oil prices prompt the US government to replenish strategic reserves. Last week, oil prices posted their sharpest weekly decline in three months, with Brent down more than 7% and WTI down 6.8%.

Monday, May 06

On Monday, investors will focus on business activity in the services sector. In the US session, it is worth paying attention to the speeches of FOMC officials. It’s a bank holiday in the United Kingdom and Japan.

Main events of the day:

– Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks at 15:25 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 19:50 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, May 07

The main event on Tuesday will be the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. No changes in monetary policy are expected, so traders will focus on the press conference. If it is dovish, it will be negative for AUD.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Monetary Policy Report at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, May 08

On Wednesday, traders should also pay attention to the crude oil reserves data, which significantly impact oil prices. Over the past week, oil prices have fallen sharply due to reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East. It is worth watching whether lower oil prices may prompt the US government to replenish its strategic reserves.

Main events of the day:

– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, May 09

On Thursday, the Bank of England will hold a meeting on monetary policy. The BoE is expected to maintain all current monetary policy settings. But if, at the press conference, BoE head Bailey hints at the first rate cut in late summer-early fall, it could be a negative trigger for the British currency. Asian traders should pay attention to China’s trade balance data. It’s a bank holiday in Switzerland, France, Germany and Norway.

Main events of the day:

– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BOE Monetary Policy Report at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, May 10

The main event to watch on Friday is the UK GDP data for the last month. Analysts expect the economy to show a small growth. At the same time, the level of Industrial and Manufacturing production is expected to remain flat. Also, on Friday, the ECB will publish the minutes of its April meeting, which will likely confirm policymakers‘ official intention to cut rates in June.

Main events of the day:

– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2024.05.06

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