Week’s main events March 30 – April 03)

This week, financial markets will remain closely focused on the situation in the Middle East, given Washington’s decision to postpone military operations until the end of the week and the ongoing risks of disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, which threaten global economic stability. In the United States, despite a shortened workweek due to the Easter holidays, the key event will be the release of labor market data. Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing Index will provide insight into the extent of the negative impact of high fuel prices on the industrial sector. In Europe, the main indicator will be the first inflation reports from the eurozone since the start of the military conflict, which will demonstrate the economic consequences of rising energy costs. Similar business activity indicators are also expected from China, the world’s largest consumer of energy resources. In the realm of monetary policy, investors will analyze the minutes and details of recent meetings of the central banks of Japan and Australia to more accurately forecast future interest rate changes.

Monday, March 30

The most significant events for Monday, March 30, are the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Fed Chair Powell’s speech, as they provide the first major signals of the month on inflation trends in Europe and the direction of US monetary policy. Germany’s annual inflation is forecast to increase 1.9% to 2.6%. If the figure surprises to the upside, it could signal that disinflation has stalled, providing a brief lift to the Euro. Later in the day, global attention will turn to Fed Chair Powell, whose remarks follow the recent FOMC decision to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%. Given recent concerns about sticky inflation and Middle East tensions, any shift toward a more „hawkish“ tone, emphasizing that rates could stay higher for longer to combat supply-side shocks, would likely strengthen the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on Gold (XAU). In Japan, the BoJ Summary of Opinions will be parsed for signs of a consensus building toward a June rate hike; a hawkish lean there would provide support to the Japanese yen (JPY), while a focus on „accommodative conditions“ would see the yen continue its struggle against the major crosses.

Main events of the day:

– Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions at 02:50 (GMT+3); – JPY (MED)
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3); – CHF (LOW)
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3); – EUR (MED)
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+3). – USD, XAU (MED)

Tuesday, March 31

Tuesday, March 31, is a high-velocity day that marks the end of Q1, featuring a massive data dump from Japan, China’s official PMIs, and the highly anticipated US JOLTS report. The US JOLTS Job Openings (forecast: 6.9M, previous 6.95 M) will be the primary driver for the USD. After rebounding in January, a „miss“ below 6.8M would signal that the US labor market is finally losing its luster, likely weighing on the US Dollar and boosting expectations for a Fed pivot. Conversely, a steady or higher print would reinforce the „higher-for-longer“ narrative, keeping the Greenback dominant as we head into April. In Asia, Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI (forecast: 1.8%) and China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI (forecast: 49.8) will set the early tone. For the Yen, any surprise in Tokyo inflation above the 2% target would reignite bets on a BoJ rate hike, providing support to the JPY.

Meanwhile, China’s PMI is teetering on the edge of expansion (50.0). A reading below 49.8 would signal stagnation in the world’s second-largest economy, likely pressuring the AUD and regional indices like the HK50. In Europe, the Eurozone CPI (forecast: 2.4%-2.6%) will be critical. With the ECB recently revising 2026 inflation projections upward due to energy costs, a high print would strengthen the Euro (EUR) as markets price out immediate cuts.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3); – JPY (MED)
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3); – JPY (MED)
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3); – JPY (MED)
– Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 03:30 (GMT+3); – AUD (MED)
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3); – GBP (MED)
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3); – EUR (MED)
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3); – EUR (LOW)
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3); – EUR (MED)
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3); – CAD (MED)
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3); – USD (HIGH)
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3). – USD (MED)

Wednesday, April 01

Wednesday marks a high-impact transition into the second quarter, dominated by the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the ADP Employment Change, which will serve as the primary trendsetters for the USD as markets look ahead to Friday’s NFP. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast to climb to 52.3, which would likely trigger a rally in the US Dollar (USD) and a sell-off in Treasury bonds, reinforcing the „no landing“ economic scenario. The ADP report is expected to show a decrease from 63K to 43K private jobs, any significant miss would fuel recessionary fears and put downward pressure on the Greenback. In Asia, Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturers Index is projected to remain steady at 15-16, reflecting resilient business sentiment despite global headwinds. A higher-than-expected reading would provide support for the Japanese yen (JPY), as it would embolden the Bank of Japan to consider further policy normalization.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3); – JPY (LOW)
– Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3); – JPY (LOW)
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3); – JPY (MED)
– China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3); – CHA50, HK50 (LOW)
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3); – CHF (LOW)
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3); – CHF (MED)
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3); – EUR (LOW)
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3); – EUR (MED)
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3); – GBP (MED)
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3); – EUR (MED)
– UK BoE FPC Meeting Minutes at 12:30 (GMT+3); – GBP (MED)
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3); – USD (MED)
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3); – USD (MED)
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3); – CAD (LOW)
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3); – USD (HIGH)
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3). – WTI (MED)

Thursday, April 02

Thursday features a mix of high-impact inflation data from Switzerland and critical labor market indicators from the US, which will serve as the final „gut check“ before the Friday Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the main driver of volatility in the Swiss franc today. Inflation is forecast to jump from 0.1% to 0.5% year-over-year, hovering just above the deflation threshold. This would signal a stabilization of price pressures, providing support for the CHF against the euro and the dollar. However, if the actual figure unexpectedly drops into negative territory (deflation), this is likely to trigger a sell-off of the Swiss franc (CHF), as markets will anticipate more aggressive monetary easing by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). In the US, Initial Jobless Claims are expected to hold steady around the 210-212K mark. A sudden spike in claims (above 220K) would be viewed as a „canary in the coal mine“ for a weak NFP on Friday, likely pressuring the US Dollar (USD) and boosting Gold (XAU). For energy traders, the US Natural Gas Storage report is the „Main Event“ for XNG. A larger-than-expected seasonal draw would support prices.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3); – AUD (LOW)
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3); – CHF (HIGH)
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3); – CAD (LOW)
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3); – USD (LOW)
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3); – USD (MED)
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3). – XNG (HIGH)

Friday, April 03

Friday is the most anticipated day of the month, as the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will provide a definitive answer to whether the US economy is heading for a „soft landing“ or a sharper downturn. The headline Non-Farm Payrolls are forecast to show a modest gain of 50,000 to 56,000 jobs in March. This would be a significant recovery from the shock February report, which saw the economy unexpectedly shed 92,000 jobs (the worst contraction since late 2024). A result that meets or beats this 50K forecast would likely spark a relief rally in the US dollar (USD) and push Gold (XAU) lower, as it would signal that the February dip was a temporary „glitch“ rather than the start of a recession. However, a second consecutive negative print would be catastrophic for the Greenback, potentially locking in a June rate cut from the Fed and sending Gold to new highs. In most European countries, the financial markets will be closed for the Easter holiday.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3); – JPY (LOW)
– China RatingDog Services PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3); – CHA50, HK50 (LOW)
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3). – USD (MED)

by JustMarkets, 2025.03.30

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