Week’s main events (September 29 – October 03)

This week’s main event will be the release of data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States. The report will show how quickly the central bank will have to cut rates in the coming months. Economists expect the economy to have added 51,000 jobs last month, slightly more than the 22,000 jobs added in August. A weak report will increase the likelihood of a faster rate cut, which could negatively impact the US dollar. Other important labor market data includes the ADP employment report and JOLTS results.

Additionally, investors will be wary of the risk of a US government shutdown as the new fiscal year begins. In Europe, fresh inflation data for the Eurozone, as well as CPI release for Switzerland, will be available. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its scheduled monetary policy meeting, where no changes are expected. There will also be a wealth of macroeconomic statistics on manufacturing and services PMI data, providing insight into global economic trends in key economies. The OPEC+ meeting and oil inventory prints may move energy markets and CAD.

Monday, September 29

The week opens light: the US Pending Home Sales (previous 0.7% y/y, forecast 1.9% y/y) print at 17:00 will be the day’s only market-moving US release. A softer print would reinforce concerns about the housing sector and consumer demand, mildly weighing on the USD and homebuilders. A surprise upside would lend short-term support to the USD and equity names tied to housing demand./div>

Main events of the day:

– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, September 30

Tuesday is a busy global data day. The RBA decision is the event of the day – markets expect the RBA to hold the cash rate, so the reaction will hinge on guidance: a dovish tilt would likely soften the AUD, while a neutral/hawkish tone would support the AUD. China PMIs and Japan retail sales (previous 0.3% y/y, forecast 0.5% y/y) will set the tone for Asian risk assets and commodity demand. Stronger Chinese PMI readings would support commodity-linked FX and risk appetite, while weaker PMIs would pressure the CNY and regional equities. European retail sales and German CPI prints during the day will move EUR crosses. The increase in the German CPI is expected to support the EUR. Finally, Powell’s speech in the evening can amplify intraday moves if he signals anything material on the Fed outlook. It’s a bank holiday in Canada.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Cash Rate at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Rate Statement at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Press Conference at 08:30 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:50 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, October 01

On Wednesday, an important OPEC+ meeting is scheduled to take place. Signals of additional output increases would cap oil prices and pressure energy currencies. A decision to withhold supply increases (or geopolitical supply shocks) would push oil prices (WTI, BRENT) up and support CAD. Do not forget about crude oil inventories, which are published every Wednesday and show the increase/decrease in inventories compared to the previous week. This report influences short-term trends in the oil market. US ADP (previous 54K, forecast 40K) and ISM manufacturing data (previous 48.7, forecast 49) are also worth paying attention to, as they are important domestic indicators ahead of Friday’s employment data release and will influence the dynamics of the US dollar and Treasury bonds. It’s a bank holiday in China.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– OPEC+ meeting at 13:00 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, October 02

Thursday’s main report will be Swiss inflation data. Swiss inflation (previous 0.2% y/y, forecast 0.1% y/y) and KOF indicators can move CHF down, but the bigger market focus will be whether US claims show labour market resilience. A pickup in claims (previous 218K, forecast 223K) would be USD-negative. Natural gas storage data can move gas prices (XNG) and related European energy pricing.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, October 03

The most important Friday release is the Nonfarm Payrolls report. This data can trigger increased market volatility, and the indicator is also taken into account by the Fed when adjusting monetary policy. Economists expect the US economy to have added 50,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.3% and wage growth continuing to be strong. A strong jobs report will reduce the total number of rate cut points this year, which may give temporary support to the US dollar. A weak report, on the contrary, will indicate weakness in the labor market and increase the likelihood of a faster rate cut. Also watch the US ISM Services, Eurozone, and UK services PMIs. Service-sector strength globally would reinforce the case for sticky inflation, whereas weakness would favour safe-havens. It’s a bank holiday in China.

Main events of the day:

- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan BoJ Gov Ueda Speaks at 04:05 (GMT+3);
- – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:40 (GMT+3);
- – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 16:20 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.09.29

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