Week’s main events (September 22 – September 26)
This week’s market narrative combines high-frequency activity data with a heavy macroeconomic tilt at the end of the week, featuring the US advance GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE), as well as Canada’s GDP print. Traders should watch whether growth indicators (PMIs) continue to hold up, which would support risk assets and put upward pressure on yields, or whether signs of cooling prompt markets to price in more easing. Key central-bank-adjacent events (China LPR holding, SNB decision, Banxico expectations) will also shape FX and fixed-income flows through cross-currency carry and local-rate repricing.
On Monday, China sets the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates. The market widely expects no change (1-year LPR: 3.00%, 5-year: 3.50%) following the recent PBoC forbearance. А hold will keep CNY pressure relieved but still sensitive to fresh growth data. Later, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks in a hawkish tone, supporting the stance that inflation risks remain, which could lift the GBP./div>
- – China 1-y Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
- – China 5-y Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
- – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+3).
- – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
- – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 19:35 (GMT+3).
On Wednesday, Australia will publish its consumer price index. Annual inflation is expected to rise from 2.8% to 2.9%. Australia’s CPI results will be closely monitored to determine the tone of the RBA; higher figures will likely support the AUD. EIA crude oil inventories affect energy markets. A decline in crude oil inventories usually leads to an increase in WTI/Brent and commodity currencies (CAD, AUD). It is also important for traders to monitor Germany’s ifo business climate index for signals about growth in the eurozone.
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – German ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
- – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland SNB Policy Rate at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 22:00 (GMT+3).
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- – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
by
, 2025.09.22