Week’s main events (June 09 – June 13)

Market volatility is expected to remain subdued this week. This is largely due to a relatively light economic calendar and the typical seasonal slowdown in market activity during the summer months. Key data releases to watch include US inflation figures and labor market data from the United Kingdom. In the United States, inflation is expected to rise, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to delay potential interest rate cuts. This development could further strain relations between the Fed and President Trump, who has been publicly urging Chair Powell to implement rate cuts immediately. In the UK, upcoming GDP and labor market reports will be critical in assessing whether the Bank of England can maintain its current policy stance. Weaker-than-expected data may increase the probability of a rate cut before the autumn. Additionally, inflation data from China, Norway, Germany, and Mexico will also be in focus this week.

Monday, June 09

Monday will be a relatively calm and non-volatile day. During the Asian trading session, market participants should closely monitor China’s inflation data. Ongoing deflationary pressures are anticipated, which could provide support for Chinese equity indices. It’s a bank holiday in Switzerland, the Eurozone, and Australia.

Main events of the day:

– Japan GDP (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– China Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Producer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, June 10

On Tuesday, investors will focus on the UK labor market data. The unemployment rate is expected to increase from 4.5% to 4.6%, while wage growth is forecast to decrease from 5.5% to 5.3% y/y. Soft economic data could raise the probability of a Bank of England rate cut this summer, presenting a potentially bearish scenario for the pound.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia NAB Business Confidence at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, June 11

On Wednesday, all investors‘ attention will be focused on the US inflation data. Tariff effects may be woven into the usual drivers of the report. Headline inflation is expected to come in at 2.5% y/y (2.3% in the previous month), while core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to be 2.9% y/y (2.8% in the previous month). This could potentially support the US dollar. Volatility on US dollar currency pairs, US indices, and gold is expected to rise.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Inventories (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, June 12

On Thursday, market participants will closely examine the UK’s quarterly GDP report. There is a strong possibility that the data may show a contraction. Combined with signs of a weakening labor market, this could exert further downward pressure on the pound sterling.

Main events of the day:

– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);

Friday, June 13

On Friday, attention will shift to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which is released alongside inflation expectations. An increase in inflation expectations could bolster the US dollar, posing a headwind for risk assets.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.06.09

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