Week’s main events (March 17 – March 21)

This week promises to be a busy one. Investors‘ attention will primarily focus on the interest rate decisions of the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Japan, China, and Sweden. For the most part, only the Switzerland SNB is expected to cut the rate, while the other banks will likely maintain their monetary policy settings. Secondly, investors will focus on inflation data from Canada, Japan, the Eurozone, and Hong Kong. UK and Australian unemployment data are also expected this week, which will directly impact monetary policy.

Monday, March 17

On Monday, investors‘ main focus will be on the data package from China. Also, on Monday, China may announce new initiatives to support domestic demand. This could support local indices as well as currencies whose countries are directly linked to China, such as NZD and AUD. In the US session, traders will focus on US retail sales data. This measure of consumer spending can influence economic growth projections.

– China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, March 18

On Tuesday, Canada’s inflation report will be released. This inflation measure can influence BoC’s monetary policy decisions. The overall inflation rate is expected to jump from 1.9% to 2.2% y/y, while the core rate is expected to rise from 2.1% to 2.2% y/y. Also worth assessing is the median rate, which is expected to rise from 2.7% to 2.8% y/y. The rise in the inflation rate may support the Canadian currency. Given the tariff wars, the Bank of Canada is likely to halt rate cuts indefinitely.

– German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, March 19

On Wednesday, interest rate decisions are expected from the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. The BoJ has previously raised rates but is anticipated to hold steady amid global economic uncertainties. The next rate hike from BoJ is expected at the July meeting (75% probability). As for the FOMC, no changes are expected at the current meeting. However, the summary of economic forecasts and the dot plot will be updated. Fed Chairman Powell spoke on March 7 and said that the economy is strong enough to allow policymakers to be cautious in the face of heightened uncertainty. Last December, the median dot was expecting two rate cuts this year. That forecast may not have changed much in the past three months. Keeping rates on hold could give confidence to the US dollar, which hit yearly lows against many other currencies last week.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Trade Balance at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan BoJ Policy Rate at 05:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan BoJ Press Conference at 06:45 (GMT+2);
– Indonesian Interest Rate Decision at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Federal Funds Rate at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Statement at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Economic Projections at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Press Conference at 20:30 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand GDP (m/m) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

Thursday, March 20

Thursday will also be a very exciting day. Four central bank meetings are expected. In the Asian session, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will publish the decision on the 1-year and five-year prime rate. It is expected to be unchanged, although many economists believe China will have to cut rates to keep the economy going. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to maintain current rates, balancing rising inflation and higher unemployment. That said, the BoE will likely keep the door open for further cuts. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to take another step back to the zero boundary by cutting its deposit rate to 0.25% from 0.50%. The Swiss franc may temporarily come under pressure. In Sweden, the Riksbank will likely keep the rate unchanged and may announce the end of rate cuts. In addition, traders should also pay attention to the UK and Australian labor market data, which will contribute to volatility.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Unemployment Rate at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China PBoC Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:15 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Hong Kong Inflation Rate at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Policy Rate at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Press Conference at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Official Bank Rate at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Monetary Policy Summary at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Press Conference at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

Friday, March 21

On Friday, Japan’s National Core CPI data for February will be released, indicating inflation trends. Inflationary pressures are expected to continue to build and reach 4.2% in annualized terms. The JPY may receive strength, as rising inflation will increase the probability of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

Main events of the day:

– Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2025.03.17

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