Week’s main events (June 03 – June 07)

This week promises to be volatile due to a lot of important events. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the week’s main event, as it is one of the most essential parameters for the Fed’s monetary policy decision. Economists believe the US employment report remains robust in May. The stronger the labor market, the more likely the US Federal Reserve will continue to hold rates. The ECB is likely to become the first major central bank to cut interest rates this cycle on Thursday. With a 25 basis point rate cut already virtually promised by policymakers, market watchers will focus on what ECB President Christine Lagarde says about what comes next. The Bank of Canada will hold its meeting on Wednesday. Given the latest economic data, the country’s economy grew slower than expected in the first quarter, so the BOC may also go for a rate cut. Also, this week, investors should watch the Swiss inflation data and the trade balance figures for China.

Monday, June 03

On Monday, investors will focus on data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in key economies. As a rule, the index’s growth is accompanied by the strengthening of the national currency and vice versa.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, June 04

On Tuesday, the most influential news will be from Switzerland. Inflation is expected to fall from 1.6% to 1.4% y/y, adding to the likelihood of another SNB rate cut. It is also important for traders not to miss the Job Openings report from JOLTs. In recent months, the price has been very volatile in response to the publication of this report.

Main events of the day:

– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, June 05

Wednesday will be full of economic events. The Bank of Canada will hold a meeting on monetary policy. Given the recent weak economic reports, it is expected that policymakers may cut the interest rate by 0.25% to 4.75% to alleviate pressure on economic growth. The Canadian dollar may be affected by such a decision. Traders should also pay attention to Australia’s GDP data. The report is expected to show growth of 1% annually, which is lower than the previous 1.5%. This could hurt the Australian dollar (AUD).

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia GDP (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Caixin China Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, June 06

The ECB is almost certain to become the first major central bank to cut interest rates on Thursday. Since the 25 basis points rate cut is already priced in, market observers will focus on what ECB President Christine Lagarde says about further monetary policy plans. Recent economic reports indicate that the Eurozone economy is stable, and wage growth (which fuels inflation) makes the prospects for further rate cuts less certain after June. Trade balance data for key economies will also be on the agenda on Thursday.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Rate Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, June 07

The most essential Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and the Fed also considers this indicator to adjust monetary policy. Analysts expect that the economy added 185,000 jobs, representing a modest increase compared to the previous month but still indicating a stable labor market. Considering strong GDP data will increase the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged for longer, possibly until the end of the year. Such a situation would be positive for the US dollar and negative for risk assets. Traders should also keep an eye on the Canadian labor market report and China’s trade balance data, which strongly impact the entire region.

Main events of the day:

– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+3);
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2024.06.03

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