Week’s main events (December 01 – December 05)

This week, traders will focus their attention on the PCE inflation indicator, which the US Federal Reserve closely monitors. Among leading indicators, attention will focus on the ISM PMI, the preliminary University of Michigan sentiment indices, and ADP reports, which will clarify expectations for the labor market. There will be no US Non-Farm Payrolls report this week, as US federal agencies are still recovering from the recent government shutdown and adjusting their data release schedules. Globally, investors are awaiting China’s PMI, Australia’s third-quarter GDP release, and November eurozone inflation data.

Monday, December 01

On Monday, investor focus should be on Manufacturing PMI data for key economies. This indicator shows how the industry sector is feeling. As a rule, rising values are positive for the national currency, because the better the economy is feeling, the lower the probability of a central bank rate cut.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
– China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (LOW)
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

Tuesday, December 02

On Tuesday, investor focus should be on Eurozone inflation data. On an annualized basis, consumer prices are expected to be 2.1%, as in the previous month. This will not affect the medium-term trends but will increase volatility on EUR instruments.

Main events of the day:

– UK FPC Meeting Minutes at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2). – EUR (LOW)

Wednesday, December 03

On Wednesday, several service sector PMI data points are expected to be released. By analogy, this index shows the health of the service sector. The growth of indicators is usually positive for the national currency. Investors should also pay attention to Australia’s Q3 GDP data. It is expected to grow by 0.6%. If the data comes out worse than expected, it could hurt the Aussie dollar.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
– Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
– China RatingDog Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)

Thursday, December 04

On Thursday, traders should pay close attention to European retail sales data. Growth of 1.1% y/y is expected, which could potentially support the euro. Switzerland will publish a labor market report. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 2.9% as in the previous month – this is unlikely to have a significant impact on the CHF.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2); – CHF (LOW)
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – CAD (LOW)
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)

Friday, December 05

The main report on Friday will be the PCE inflation report, which the FOMC actively monitors when assessing monetary policy. On an annual basis, growth is expected to increase from 2.7% to 2.8%, while every month, growth is expected to increase by 0.2%. Such data may slightly reduce the likelihood of a US Fed rate cut in December and strengthen the US dollar in the short term. On Friday, attention should also be focused on data from the Canadian labor market. A weaker report than last month is expected: experts anticipate unemployment rising from 6.9% to 7.0% and employment numbers falling from 66.6k to 10k. A weak report will increase the likelihood of another rate cut by the Bank of Canada, which could negatively impact the Canadian dollar.

Main events of the day:

– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2) – CAD (HIGH);
– US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

by JustMarkets, 2025.12.01

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