Week’s main events (June 23 – June 27)

In the week ahead, investor attention will remain focused on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly on potential Iranian responses following US strikes on its nuclear facilities over the weekend. A key event for markets will be Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress, as participants look for signs of a more hawkish policy stance. On the data front, the US will release core PCE inflation figures, durable goods orders, and the goods trade balance. In Canada and Australia, traders will be assessing the latest consumer inflation data. Additionally, flash PMI readings for major economies, including the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan, are scheduled for release.

Monday, June 23

Monday’s session will be data-heavy, with PMI releases across major economies offering fresh clues on global growth momentum. Markets will monitor manufacturing and services PMIs from Australia, Japan, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the United States. Stronger-than-expected PMIs may support risk sentiment, while weaker figures could fuel concerns about growth and drive demand for safe havens. In Asia, Singapore’s unemployment and inflation data will provide insight into the health of the local economy. A rise in unemployment or a drop in inflation could increase expectations for policy support, while hotter inflation may limit the room for easing.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Singapore Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:30 (GMT+3);
– Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, June 24

Tuesday’s focus will shift to business sentiment, inflation trends, and central bank signals. The German Ifo Business Climate index will offer an important read on confidence in Europe’s largest economy — stronger-than-expected data could ease concerns about stagnation. At the same time, weaker figures may reinforce recession fears. Inflation reports from Mexico and Canada will help shape expectations for future monetary policy moves. In Canada, the inflation rate is expected to decline from 1.7% to 1.5% y/y. Softer readings may open the door for another easing from the BoC. Powell’s testimony, in particular, could influence US rate expectations — a hawkish tone may lift yields and the dollar, while dovish remarks could support risk assets.

Main events of the day:

– German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 16:35 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Chair Powell Testifies at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, June 25

On Wednesday, traders should focus on Australia’s consumer inflation data. Inflation is expected to decline from 2.4% to 2.3% on an annualised basis. Softer data could bolster dovish bets from the RBA. New Zealand’s trade balance will give insight into external demand — a stronger surplus may support the NZD. Also not to be missed is the weekly crude oil inventories report, especially against the backdrop of military actions in the Middle East and the high probability of blocking the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Australia Inflation Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Chair Powell Testifies at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, June 26

Thursday’s session will be packed with key data points. Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate will provide an early indication of household sentiment — stronger confidence could alleviate concerns over weak domestic demand. In the UK, Bank of England Governor Bailey’s speech will be scrutinized for any clues on future rate policy, especially after recent signs of cooling inflation. The US calendar is dense: Q1 GDP will be a headline release — a stronger revision could boost market optimism on growth, while a downward revision might weigh on sentiment. At the same time, initial jobless claims will provide a timely gauge of the labour market; rising claims could stoke concerns about softening employment, potentially increasing the likelihood of a rate cut from the US Federal Reserve this summer and putting pressure on the US dollar.

Main events of the day:

– German GfK Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:00 (GMT+3);;
– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, June 27

Friday will bring various statistics for many countries. The most essential Friday’s release is May’s Personal Consumption Price Index data — the US Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation. On an annualized basis, the index is expected to rise slightly to 2.2% from 2.1%. A stronger-than-expected number could reinforce a hawkish stance, while a softer print might revive hopes for rate cuts. Also, on Friday, traders should keep an eye on Tokyo inflation data and the UK GDP report. The Tokyo inflation report is a precursor to the country’s overall inflation. Inflation in the Japanese capital is expected to fall from 3.6% to 3.4% y/y, pushing back further rate hikes by the BoJ. As for the UK, economists forecast a modest 0.7% quarter-on-quarter increase. Stronger growth could reduce expectations for near-term Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts and support the British currency. Finally, Canada’s GDP will give a snapshot of growth momentum — a solid figure may limit room for policy easing.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);’– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);

by JustMarkets, 2025.06.23

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