Week’s main events (June 02 – June 06)

This week is expected to be marked by heightened volatility due to several key economic events. The primary focus will be on the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, a critical indicator for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Economists anticipate signs of a cooling labor market, which could increase the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed later this summer. In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to continue a rate reduction — a move that appears to be largely priced in by the markets. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its rate decision on Wednesday. Following recent data showing slower-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter, there is growing speculation that the Bank of Canada (BoC) may also opt for a rate cut. In addition to these key events, investors should monitor Swiss inflation figures and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from major economies, which may provide further insights into global economic trends.

Monday, June 02

On Monday, investor attention will center on the release of manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from major economies. Typically, an increase in the PMI is associated with economic expansion and tends to support the strength of the national currency. At the same time, a decline may signal contraction and weigh on the currency’s value.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, June 03

On Tuesday, market attention will be primarily directed toward Switzerland, where inflation is expected to decline from 0.0% to 0.2% year-over-year, potentially signaling a shift into deflationary territory. This development could influence expectations for future monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Additionally, traders should closely monitor the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). In recent months, this report has triggered notable market volatility, underscoring its growing significance in shaping investor sentiment and influencing expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, June 04

Wednesday is expected to be an eventful day, with several key economic releases scheduled on the calendar. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will hold its monetary policy meeting, and in light of recent softer economic data, markets widely anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut to 2.50%. However, any indication from policymakers of a potential pause in further easing could lend support to the Canadian dollar. Attention will also turn to Australia’s quarterly GDP report. The economy is expected to show year-over-year growth of 1.7%, an improvement from the previous reading of 1.3%. A stronger-than-expected result could provide a boost to the Australian dollar (AUD).

Main events of the day:

– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia GDP (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, June 05

On Thursday, market attention will turn to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. A 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected and already factored into the market’s pricing. As a result, the primary focus will be on President Christine Lagarde’s remarks regarding the ECB’s forward guidance. Recent economic indicators suggest that the Eurozone economy remains stable, while robust wage growth — an inflationary factor — casts uncertainty over the likelihood of additional rate cuts beyond June. Additionally, traders will monitor trade balance figures from major economies, which could provide further insight into global demand trends and currency dynamics.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Caixin China Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Rate Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, June 06

Friday’s primary focus will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, a key indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve in setting monetary policy. Markets expect an increase of 177,000 jobs, marking a notable slowdown from the previous month and signaling further signs of a cooling labor market. Coupled with recently weak GDP figures, such data would likely reinforce expectations for a Fed rate cut this summer, potentially weighing on the US dollar while supporting risk assets. Traders should also monitor Canada’s employment report. Expectations point to a weaker labor market reading, which could place additional pressure on the Canadian dollar.

Main events of the day:

– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.06.02

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