Week’s main events (April 28 – May 02)

This week, investors will closely monitor the US-China trade dispute, assessing the likelihood of potential de-escalation. In addition, the week will be packed with key economic data. In the US, the first estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025 is expected to show a significant slowdown, with some forecasts even suggesting a possible contraction. Investors will also pay attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, PCE inflation data, and ISM manufacturing PMI. In Europe, market participants will analyze Eurozone GDP and inflation data. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. In China, all eyes will be on the April PMIs, while in Australia, the focus will be on the inflation report.

Monday, April 28

No major economic news is expected on Monday. Canada will hold a federal election. Polls and betting odds show that the Liberals, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, will win with an absolute majority. The markets likely factor in this scenario and should have a limited short-term impact on the CAD. An unexpected victory for the Conservatives could instead trigger a rally in the Canadian Dollar.

Main events of the day:

– Canada Federal Election (All Day).

Tuesday, April 29

On Tuesday, the US JOLTs job openings data will hint at what kind of Non-Farm report to expect on Friday. A decline from 7.568M to 7.4M is expected, which indicates a cooling labor market. This would be a negative for the US dollar as it would increase the likelihood of a rate cut from the US Fed. In the European session, it is worth paying attention to the German consumer confidence report from GfK. Weak data is expected, which hints at the possibility of a recession in Europe’s largest economy. European indices may come under pressure. It’s a bank holiday in Japan.

Main events of the day:

– German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, April 30

Wednesday brings out a batch of the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation readings. The Q1 core PCE, headline PCE, and core PCE for March. A decline is expected for both PCE indicators. The headline indicator is expected to be 2.2% y/y (previous value 2.5% y/y). The core PCE is expected to be 2.5% y/y (previous value 2.8% y/y). The US economy is expected to have added 0.5% in the latest quarter, down sharply from 2.4% in the previous quarter. Some analysts believe that GDP may even show a contraction. If the data is worse than expected, it could hit the dollar and the US indices hard. Australian inflation data should also be in the spotlight on Wednesday. Inflationary pressures are expected to fall from 3.2% to 2.8% y/y. This will increase the probability of a rate cut from the RBA at the next meeting, which is negative for the Aussie dollar. An upside surprise, on the other hand, could cause the AUD to rise sharply. Also, it is important to evaluate China’s PMI indicators. A contraction is expected, which may cause a sell-off in CHA50 and HK50.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Thailand BoT Interest Rate Decision at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– German GDP (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);;
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– Mexico GDP (q/q) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, May 01

On Thursday, traders will mainly focus on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep the rate at the current level due to tariff uncertainty. However, the BoJ may raise the interest rate further regarding domestic economic conditions. At this meeting, the Bank of Japan will update its forecasts on inflation and growth. High uncertainty is likely to be expressed. At the US trading session, traders should pay attention to the ISM Manufacturing PMI. A decline from 49 to 47.2 is expected, intensifying the decline in the sector. Such data will be negative for the US dollar. It’s a bank holiday in Japan. It’s a bank holiday in China, Switzerland, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, May 02

The most important Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and the Fed also considers this indicator to adjust monetary policy. The US economy is expected to add 129K, down strongly from 228K last month. Such a decline is a clear sign of a cooling labor market, which could sharply increase the probability of a rate cut from the US Fed at the May or June meeting. Weak data is likely to cause the dollar to sell off. It’s a bank holiday in China.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.04.28

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