Week’s main events (October 02 – October 06)

The main events this week will be data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States. The report will show whether the Fed’s series of aggressive rate hikes is having an impact on the labor market. Economists expect the economy to have added 163,000 jobs last month, slowing slightly from 187,000 in August. A stronger-than-expected reading could underline the Fed’s 'higher for longer’ stance, weighing on markets. The central banks of Australia and New Zealand will hold regular meetings. Both banks are expected to leave rates unchanged. It should also be noted that The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are scheduled to meet on Wednesday to agree on production quotas for November and December. Also, several Fed and ECB policymakers are scheduled to speak this week, including Fed Chief Jerome Powell and ECB President Kristine Lagarde. There will be a lot of macroeconomic statistics on manufacturing and services PMI data, which will give an indication of global economic trends in key economies.

Monday, October 02

On Monday, traders will mainly focus on the Manufacturing PMI data from different countries. It is expected that the PMI index in European countries will not show significant growth and will remain in contraction territory. Also, several FOMC officials, including US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, will participate in a roundtable discussion with business representatives. It’s a bank holiday in Australia and China.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Harker Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 20:30 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, October 03

The main event on Tuesday will be the decision of the Central Bank of Australia on the interest rate. This will be the first meeting for new governor Michele Bullock. The RBA is expected to leave rates unchanged but leave the door open for another rate hike. Volatility in currency pairs with the Australian dollar will increase. Traders should also pay attention to the Swiss inflation data. Inflation is expected to rise slightly from 1.6% to 1.8% y/y, which would be a hawkish signal for the SNB. It’s a bank holiday in China and Germany.

Main events of the day:

– US FOMC Member Mester Speaks (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Rate Statement (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, October 04

Wednesday will bring various statistics for many countries. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold the next meeting. Despite the RBNZ’s hawkish stance, market observers do not expect a rate hike. However, the RBNZ is likely to hint at a possible rate hike in November. Volatility in currency pairs with the New Zealand dollar will increase. Also, on Wednesday, an important OPEC+ meeting will be held. No surprises are expected, but any hints of additional production cuts could cause sharp movements in oil prices. It’s a bank holiday in China.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand Interest Rate Decision at 04:00 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 04:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 11:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
–– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– OPEC+ meeting at 13:00 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (m/m) at 17:25 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 19:00 (GMT+3).

Thursday, October 05

No major news is expected on Thursday, but trade balance data from the major economies will provide some insight into how high-interest rates are affecting imports/exports and the overall economy. It’s a bank holiday in China.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Daly Speaks (m/m) at 18:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Barr Speaks (m/m) at 19:15 (GMT+3).

Friday, October 06

The most important Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and this indicator is also taken into account by the Fed to adjust monetary policy. Economists expect the US economy to have added 168,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7% and wage growth remaining strong. Traders should also keep a close eye on the labor market data in Canada, as well as the speeches of FOMC members, which give clues as to the future actions of the Fed. It’s a bank holiday in China.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Waller Speaks (m/m) at 19:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2023.10.02

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