Week’s main events (May 04 – May 08)

This week, global markets will remain closely tied to progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran, as oil dynamics continue to dictate movements in equities and currencies. The spotlight will be on the US labor market report (Non‑Farm Payrolls), which, together with ISM data and China’s PMI indices, will reveal how resilient the global economy truly is to the ongoing inflationary shock. A parade of rate decisions in Australia, Mexico, Norway, and Sweden will push investors to search for signs of policy easing. However, trade balance figures from Germany and China may add to the pessimism. The corporate sector will also be in focus: earnings from AMD, Palantir, and Shell will show whether the AI frenzy is still alive and how energy giants are monetizing the current supply‑chain crisis.

Monday, May 04

On Monday, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is the day’s primary focus. Following an April reading of 52.2, the final print is expected to confirm that the sector has hit a near four-year high. While production and new orders are expanding at their fastest pace since 2022, much of this growth is driven by “panic stockpiling” amid the Middle East conflict and rising energy costs. If the data holds or beats, it will provide a modest boost to the EUR, as it suggests the industrial core is currently absorbing the energy shock. However, if the sub-indices for “Input Prices” show another sharp jump, it will reinforce the ECB’s hawkish dilemma, potentially weighing on the DAX 40 as margins come under pressure. It’s a bank holiday in the United Kingdom, Japan, and China.

Main events of the day:

– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3) – CHF (MED)
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
– Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 22:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (LOW)

Tuesday, May 05

On Tuesday, the RBA Interest Rate Decision is the premier event. Markets have priced in an 86% probability of a 25bps hike to 4.35%, marking the third increase this year as the “Iran war shock” keeps oil above $100 and Australian CPI elevated at 4.1%. If Governor Bullock delivers the expected hike and maintains a hawkish bias in the press conference, refusing to rule out a move to 4.60%, the AUD should see a strong bullish impulse, particularly against the Yen and euro. In Switzerland, traders will be focusing on inflation data. Annual inflation is expected to rise from 0.3% to 0.8%. This will increase the likelihood that the SNB will not cut rates into negative territory. The data may slightly strengthen the Swiss franc against the dollar. In the US, the focus is on the JOLTS Job Openings. If data remain steady near 6.8-6.9 million, it will prove the US labor market is bending but not breaking. This combination of strong services and a tight labor market would likely push US Treasury Yields higher, weighing on Gold (XAU/USD) and providing fresh momentum for the Greenback. It’s a bank holiday in Japan and China.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Service PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
– Australia RBA Cash Rate at 07:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (HIGH)
– Australia RBA Rate Statement at 07:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (HIGH)
– Australia RBA Press Conference at 08:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (HIGH)
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3) – CHF (HIGH)
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
– US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (LOW)

Wednesday, May 06

Wednesday serves as a critical “bridge” session in which traders evaluate the aftermath of the Iran conflict through the lens of labor stability and energy supply. The New Zealand Unemployment Rate is the morning’s primary risk. Following a steady climb throughout early 2026, the rate hit 5.4% in the last reading. Analysts expect a further tick upward to 5.5%-5.6% as high interest rates and falling construction consents continue to bite. If the data misses significantly to the upside (a higher unemployment rate), the NZD will likely face aggressive selling. Conversely, a surprise below 5.4% would signal labor resilience, potentially boosting the NZD in the short term. In the US, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change serves as the critical appetizer for Friday’s official jobs report. After a surprisingly resilient 62k gain in March, forecasts for April have been revised upward toward 70k-75k. While private hiring is slowing from 2025 levels, the “stickiness” in healthcare and service sectors is keeping the floor from falling out. A beat here would reinforce the “Higher for Longer” Fed narrative, boosting the USD. However, the main volatility will likely occur with US Crude Oil Reserves. With global inventories estimated to draw down by 5.1 million bpd in Q2 due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, a larger-than-expected draw in US stockpiles could send WTI back toward $115 as physical scarcity outweighs recent ceasefire optimism. It’s a bank holiday in Japan.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3) – NZD (MED)
– New Zealand Gov Breman Speaks at 04:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (LOW)
– China RatingDog Service PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– Eurozone Service PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
– UK Service PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
– US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – CAD (LOW)
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)
– Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 23:15 (GMT+3) – CAD (LOW)

Thursday, May 07

Thursday is a high-impact day for secondary currencies, featuring a triple-header of interest rate decisions from Sweden, Norway, and Mexico. The Scandinavian Central Banks take the lead. The Swedish Riksbank is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 1.75%. While inflation has fallen faster than anticipated, the Riksbank remains cautious due to risks from the Middle East war and a volatile Swedish Krona. If they hint at a “prolonged pause” rather than a cut, the SEK could see a relief rally. Simultaneously, Norges Bank is expected to keep its rate steady at 4.00%. With oil prices (Brent) hovering near $90-$100, Norway faces a unique challenge: a booming energy sector fueling domestic inflation, while the economy cools. Any hawkish rhetoric from Norges Bank could see the NOK outperform its G10 peers. In the evening, the investor’s focus shifts to the Banxico (Mexico) Interest Rate Decision. Following an unexpected cut to 6.75% in March, markets are divided. While Mexico’s economic activity has shown “marked weakness,” headline inflation recently spiked toward 4.63%. If Banxico pauses to protect the Peso against a strong USD, the MXN could stabilize. However, another “surprise” cut would signal deep concern over a recession, potentially sending the USD/MXN back toward the 18.00 psychological level.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (LOW)
– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
– Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision at 10:00 (GMT+3) – SEK (HIGH)
– Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+3) – NOK (HIGH)
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3) – CHF (MED)
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
– Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3) – MXN (MED)
– US Unemployment Claims (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)
– Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 22:00 (GMT+3) – MXN (HIGH)

Friday, May 08

Friday is the most anticipated day for global macro traders, as it delivers the “NFP Shock” and critical labor data from Canada, potentially confirming a widening economic gap between the two neighbors. The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate are the undisputed heavyweights of the week. Following a resilient March (+178k), market consensus for April has shifted toward a more moderate 60k-90k gain. The real focus, however, is the Unemployment Rate, which recently ticked up to 4.3%. If it holds at 4.3% or edges higher, it would signal that the US labor market is finally cooling under the weight of restrictive rates. Steady hiring and cooling wages could spark a rally in US Equities, but a significant miss in payrolls would trigger “recession” alarms, likely hurting the USD and boosting gold. North of the border, Canada’s Unemployment Rate is expected to remain sticky at 6.7%. The Canadian labor market is struggling more visibly than its US counterpart, with employment declining in several provinces last quarter. If the rate jumps toward 6.9%, it will practically force the Bank of Canada (BoC) to adopt a more aggressive easing path compared to the Fed. This would likely drive USD/CAD toward the 1.3800 handle as the “policy divergence” trade gains momentum. In the morning, watch Japan’s Average Cash Earnings. After hitting a 34-year high of 3.3% in February, the March data (forecasted at 3.3%-3.4%) is the final piece of the puzzle for the Bank of Japan. Sustained wage growth above 3% provides the BoJ with the political “cover” needed to continue raising rates toward 1.00%, which would be a structural bullish driver for the JPY.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Average Cash Earnings (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
– Germany Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
– Germany Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
– UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 15:20 (GMT+3) – GBP (LOW)
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH)
– US Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
– US Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

by JustMarkets, 2025.05.04

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