Week’s main events (January 08 – January 12)

This week, traders will be mainly interested in inflation data in the United States, Australia, Switzerland, and China, as well as the inflation rate in Tokyo, which is considered to be a leading indicator of overall inflation in the country. Consumer prices are expected to decline in all countries except the United States. In turn, rising inflation in the US may push back the Federal Reserve’s plans to cut rates this spring. The UK will publish several economic data, the main of which will be the GDP report. Analysts expect modest growth, but there is also a possibility that the economy could contract or show zero growth for the second month in a row. It also marks the start of the fourth quarter earnings season, with numerous large US banks reporting on Friday.

Monday, January 08

On Monday, traders should pay attention to the Swiss inflation data. The inflation rate is at 1.4%, and analysts forecast a slight increase to 1.5% annually. This will be a sign of strength for the Swiss franc even though the country’s inflation rate is below the SNB target of 2%. Traders will also be interested in Eurozone retail sales data, which will show how Europeans are spending money in a period of high-interest rates. It’s a bank holiday in Japan.

Main events of the day:

– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (m/m) at 19:00 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, January 09

On Tuesday, investors should pay attention to the unemployment data in Europe. A solid labor market allows the ECB to be more aggressive in its next meetings. Separately, it is worth analyzing the Tokyo Inflation Report, which is a leading indicator of overall inflation in the country. Further cooling of inflation in the Japanese capital may indicate a similar reaction in the national CPI data for the month and may indicate that Japanese policymakers will not be in a hurry to move interest rates out of negative territory.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2);
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, January 10

On Wednesday, the most important release for investors will be the Consumer Price Index in Australia. Analysts expect inflation to fall from 4.9% to 4.5% y/y. Volatility on currency pairs with the Australian dollar will increase. Also, traders should not miss the US Crude Oil Inventories data, which has a significant impact on oil prices. The oil market is very tight right now because of the disruption of energy shipments across the Red Sea to Europe.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 16:15 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 22:15 (GMT+2).

Thursday, January 11

The most volatile day may be Thursday. The US will publish inflation data where consumer prices are expected to rise from 3.1% to 3.2% year-over-year. Core inflation is expected to fall from 4% y/y to 3.8% y/y. The US CPI is the most important indicator of the Fed to adjust the monetary policy, so the volatility on the currency pairs with the US dollar will sharply increase. Rising inflation will further reduce the likelihood that the US Fed will start cutting rates in March this year and reduce the number of basis points of rate cuts for the full year. Consequently, the US dollar may continue its recovery on the back of rising Treasury yields. Investors should also pay attention to the weekly report on the number of jobless claims in the United States. A resilient labor market allowed the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to their highest levels and leave them there for an extended period. y impacts oil prices.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

Friday, January 12

On Friday, the UK will release GDP data for November. Economists expect a moderate rebound after October’s drop, which was caused by an unusually large decline in manufacturing activity. The traders should also focus on China’s inflation data. China slipped further into deflation in November, and while its exports improved, imports slowed markedly, pointing to weak demand. Therefore, if this week’s data confirms the gloomy outlook, risk aversion could intensify, and pressure on the Chinese authorities to take bolder measures to stimulate the economy could increase. With Australia and New Zealand being China’s major trading partners, the Australian dollar and the kiwi could also come under pressure. US producer inflation data should also be on traders’ radar. Rising producer prices may give additional confidence to the US dollar.

Main events of the day:

– China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2);
– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2024.01.08

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