Week’s main events (October 30 – November 03)

The main events this week will be data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States, as well as interest rate decisions of the central banks of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Analysts forecast that the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (RBA) will keep rates unchanged. The Bank of Japan will also leave interest rates unchanged, but there could be changes in the management of the YCC yield curve, leading to a stronger yen. Investors should also keep a close eye on European data, especially inflation and GDP. Also, this week, there will be a lot of macroeconomic statistics on manufacturing PMI and services PMI data, which will give an indication of global economic trends in key economies.

Monday, October 30

On Monday, traders will be focused on economic data from Germany – GDP and inflation rate. Analysts predict a decline in inflation, but the region’s largest economy will show a contraction over the past month.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– German GDP (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 21:30 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, October 31

The main event on Tuesday will be the decision of the Central Bank of Japan. No change in the interest rate is expected, but amid the Bank of Japan’s regular FX intervention last week, markets expect the BoJ to consider a change in yield curve management policy with an upward adjustment to the inflation forecast. Volatility in currency pairs with the Japanese yen will increase. Traders should also pay attention to the Eurozone inflation data. Economists expect a further decline in core inflation, which is negative for the European currency. There will also be important New Zealand labor market data at the end of the trading day.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 04:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 04:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan BoJ Press Conference at 08:30 (GMT+2);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Unemployment Rate at 23:45 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, November 01

Wednesday will bring various statistics for many countries. The Fed will hold a monetary policy meeting. Most investors believe the Fed is done tightening policy after Chairman Jerome Powell said rising long-term yields reduce the need for further rate hikes, although some believe another rate hike could come at the central bank’s next meeting in December. Volatility on currencies with the US dollar and gold will be high. Also, that day, a lot of macrostatistics on the Manufacturing PMI data from different countries will be published. The US Crude Oil Reserves data, which has a great impact on oil prices, should also be in focus. It’s a bank holiday in France and Italy.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 14:15 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 14:40 (GMT+2);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Statement at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Press Conference at 20:30 (GMT+2).

Thursday, November 02

On Thursday, traders will mainly focus on the Interest Rate Decisions from the Bank of England. Investors expect the Bank of England to keep rates at a 15-year high of 5.25% while leaving open the possibility of raising them further if necessary. Investors should also keep a close eye on the inflation rate in Switzerland and the Interest Rate Decision from the Bank of Norway.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Norwegian Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 19:00 (GMT+2);

Friday, November 03

The most important Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and this indicator is also taken into account by the Fed to adjust monetary policy. After creating 336,000 new jobs in September, economists are expecting more moderate job growth of 182,000, which is still consistent with a robust labor market. Indications of continued strength in the labor market could add to bets on how aggressive the Fed may be in tightening monetary policy at the December meeting. Traders should also keep a close eye on Canadian labor market data, where a weak report is expected, increasing the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will not raise rates this cycle.

Main events of the day:

– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2023.10.30

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