Week’s main events April (13 – April 17)

This week will be pivotal for global markets, as investors assess the actual damage caused by the recent round of geopolitical tensions amid the start of earnings season. The focus will be on the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which will provide the first official confirmation of how the sharp rise in oil and gas prices has affected the cost of goods. Markets fear that a sharp jump in wholesale prices will force the Fed to maintain a tight monetary policy longer than expected. China will release a slew of data, including first-quarter GDP, which is expected to show an acceleration to 5%. However, these figures will be weighed against industrial production and retail sales data, which may signal a slowdown in domestic demand. In Europe, attention is focused on trade and industrial production data, which are already under pressure from US tariffs. The EU’s political direction may also shift following the Hungarian elections, where Viktor Orbán’s ability to veto key EU decisions is at stake. The spring meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund will serve as a forum for discussing the debt sustainability of developing countries amid high energy prices. The IMF is expected to update its global growth forecasts, taking into account the risks of a long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Global tech giants TSMC and ASML will present their quarterly results and, more importantly, updated forecasts for the development of the artificial intelligence industry. At the same time, Wall Street is shifting its focus to the corporate sector: earnings reports from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and BlackRock will shed light on the financial sector’s resilience amid high volatility and expensive borrowing costs. Investors will be looking for confirmation that AI investments continue to grow, despite the overall slowdown in industrial production in Europe and the US.

Monday, April 13

Monday will be relatively quiet, but the US Existing Home Sales data will offer a crucial look at how the real estate market is absorbing the current 6.3%-6.5% mortgage rate environment. The consensus for Existing Home Sales points to a slight cooling to 4.01 million (annualized), down from 4.09 million, representing a forecasted month-over-month decline of roughly 2.0%. For the US dollar, a weaker-than-expected reading might soften the currency slightly as it suggests a cooling domestic economy. However, the impact is typically moderate compared to inflation data.

Main events of the day:

– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

Tuesday, April 14

Tuesday is defined by significant data from China and the US, providing a dual-engine impact on global sentiment and inflation expectations. China’s trade balance is a key indicator for the Australian dollar (AUD) and the HK50 index, especially given its sharp rise in exports earlier this year. Markets are looking for signs that the surplus was not merely a holiday-driven anomaly, but evidence of a sustained recovery in global demand. If the surplus remains stable despite growing trade tensions and new tariffs, this is likely to strengthen the Australian dollar (AUD), as China remains the primary buyer of Australia’s commodities. Conversely, a sharp contraction in the surplus would signal a cooling of the global manufacturing sector, putting strong pressure on the China A50 and the Hang Seng Index (HK50). In the afternoon, attention will shift to the US Producer Price Index (PPI). Following an unexpected jump in February to 3.7% year-over-year, a reading matching or exceeding current high-end forecasts would signal that “backlogged” inflation is still seeping into the consumer sector. High PPI readings typically precede high CPI readings, which is likely to push the US dollar (DXY) higher, as this would put the Federal Reserve in an even more difficult position regarding rate cuts. For traders trading gold (XAU), this event carries high risk, rising producer costs point to persistent inflation, which could lead to higher yields and a subsequent sell-off of the non-yielding precious metal.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (LOW)
– Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
– China Trade Balance (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – SEK (MED)
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)

Wednesday, April 15

A major supply-side shock in energy dominates on Wednesday. The US crude oil inventory report (EIA) is the key event of the day. Although the market generally expects a moderate increase in inventories, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the projected massive reduction in global inventories by 5.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026 make these figures extremely significant. If the report shows a significant drawdown in inventories or even a smaller-than-expected build, the price of WTI crude could easily rise above $100 amid peak concerns about supply. Later in the evening, a series of speeches by Lagarde of the ECB, Bailey of the Bank of England, and Schlegel of the SNB will prompt a reassessment of the “inflation versus growth” trade-off. President Lagarde has already made it clear that a war in Iran and the loss of LNG supplies are “extreme scenarios” for the eurozone economy. If she or Governor Bailey takes a tougher stance in combating this energy-driven inflation, the euro and the pound could strengthen against the U.S. dollar. However, given the looming risk of a recession in Europe, there is a hint that they will “ignore” the energy shock to protect growth.

Main events of the day:

– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
– US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3) – CHF (MED)
– New Zealand RNBZ Gov Breman Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (MED)
– UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 22:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)

Thursday, April 16

Thursday is a massive day for global markets, with a heavy focus on the health of the Australian labor market and a comprehensive data dump from China that will dictate the „risk-on” or „risk-off” mood for the session. Australia’s unemployment rate is a key factor influencing the Australian dollar’s exchange rate. Following an unexpected jump to 4.3% last month, the market expects the rate to stabilize at 4.2–4.3%. If the unemployment rate remains high or rises slightly, it will signal that the RBA’s hawkish policy is finally cooling the labor market, potentially paving the way for a more dovish stance later this year. However, labor force participation should be closely monitored; if unemployment is rising simply because more people are entering the labor force, the RBA may maintain a “hawkish” stance, which would support the Australian dollar. At the same time, the release of Chinese data will provide the final verdict on the recovery of the Chinese economy. The consensus forecast for Q1 GDP ranges from 5.0% to 5.2% year-on-year. Exceeding expectations, especially if driven by strong industrial production, will provide a powerful boost to the China A50 and Hang Seng (HK50) indices and offer secondary support to the Australian dollar through demand for commodities.

Main events of the day:

Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (HIGH)
– China GDP (q/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– China Industrial Production (y/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
– Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 10:30 (GMT+3) – CHF (MED)
– Eurozone Inflation Rate (w/w) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (LOW)
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)

Friday, April 17

Friday serves as a quiet conclusion to a high-volatility week, with the focus on the Eurozone’s external demand. The eurozone’s trade balance for February is expected to return to a surplus, with forecasts ranging from €9.8 billion to €11.1 billion, indicating a recovery from the unexpected €1.9 billion deficit recorded in January. Although German exports grew by 3.6% in February, rising energy import costs and weakening demand in the machinery sector continue to weigh on the overall balance. If the surplus exceeds expectations, it will signal that the eurozone’s industrial core remains resilient despite geopolitical tensions. However, since these are “low-impact” data reflecting activity in February, they are unlikely to alter the European Central Bank’s (ECB) current course.

Main events of the day:

–Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)

by JustMarkets, 2025.04.13

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