Week’s main events (March 02 – March 06)
The upcoming week will be critical for global markets due to the coincidence of key economic releases and a sharp escalation in the Middle East. On February 28, 2026, the situation in the Persian Gulf shifted into a phase of open conflict: following joint US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military facilities as part of Operation „Epic Fury,” Tehran launched retaliatory missile strikes against US bases in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Explosions rocked Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai, prompting the closure of airspace over the region and an inevitable spike in the „war premium” on oil and gold prices when trading opens on Monday.
Against this explosive backdrop, investors will analyze Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the US, China, and the Eurozone, while also awaiting the February US labor market report (Non-farm Payrolls), which will determine the Fed’s readiness to cut rates. In the UK, the focus will shift to the Treasury’s „Spring Statement” on March 3, where Keir Starmer will attempt to stabilize confidence in the pound following political scandals. In Beijing, the „Two Sessions” will begin on March 4, where China will present an ambitious 15th Five-Year Plan with an emphasis on technological sovereignty. In the context of a new war in the Middle East, this could radically reshape global investment flows toward defensive and commodity assets.
On Monday, investors will focus on manufacturing sector business activity data across key economies. It’s a leading indicator of economic health. A value above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, and a value below 50.0 indicates contraction. A strengthening of the national currency usually accompanies the indicator’s growth.
- – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
- – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (LOW)
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
- – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
- – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 23:10 (GMT+2). – AUD (LOW)
The most critical events for Tuesday are the Eurozone CPI and the UK Annual Budget, which are poised to drive volatility for the EUR and GBP. With Eurozone inflation forecast to hold at 1.7%, matching or missing this expectation would likely reinforce the narrative of impending ECB rate cuts, applying downward pressure on the euro. Conversely, any upside surprise would force a market repricing of ECB policy, potentially providing the currency with a short-term lift. Simultaneously, the UK Annual Budget release will be closely scrutinized for fiscal guidance, with the OBR expected to forecast 1.4% growth for 2026. If the Chancellor signals tighter fiscal policy or reveals lower-than-anticipated growth projections, the British pound could face selling pressure as investors digest the impact on economic expansion and future Bank of England interest rate decisions.
- – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- – Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks at 06:00 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- – UK Annual Budget Release at 14:30 (GMT+2). – GBP (MED)
The most critical events for Wednesday are the US ISM Services PMI and the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI), as they provide high-impact signals for the USD and CHF amid shifting central bank expectations. For the US, the ISM Services PMI is forecast to remain steady at 53.8, indicating continued expansion in the largest part of the US economy. A reading that beats this forecast would likely strengthen the US Dollar (USD) by suggesting that inflationary pressures in services are sticky, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts. In Switzerland, the YoY Inflation Rate is expected to remain exceptionally low, hovering around 0.1%. Since this is well below the Swiss National Bank’s target range, any further stagnation or a dip into negative territory (deflation) would likely be seen as a green light for the SNB to cut rates further or intervene to weaken the currency. This would lead to downward pressure on the Swiss franc (CHF). Additionally, traders should keep an eye on Australia’s GDP (expected at 0.7% q/q), as a miss could weaken the AUD by signaling that the RBA’s restrictive policy is finally beginning to stifle growth more than anticipated.
- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
- – Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- – China Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (HIGH)
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
- – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- – US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2); – WTI (HIGH)
- – Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+2). – CAD (LOW)
The most significant events for Thursday are the US Initial Jobless Claims and the Eurozone Retail Sales, as they provide direct insight into the health of the labor market and consumer demand. The consensus for Initial Jobless Claims is 216K, a slight increase from the previous week’s 212K. If the actual number exceeds this forecast, it would signal a cooling labor market, likely exerting downward pressure on the US dollar (USD) and bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to consider a more accommodative stance. In the Eurozone, Retail Sales for January are expected to show a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, recovering slightly from previous volatility but still reflecting cautious consumer behavior. A reading that falls below this mark would suggest that high borrowing costs are severely crimping domestic demand, which could weaken the euro (EUR). Additionally, traders should watch the US Natural Gas Storage report (forecasted at a -52 Bcf withdrawal), where a larger-than-expected draw, driven by late-winter cold snaps, could provide a bullish catalyst for Natural Gas (XNG) prices. In contrast, a smaller draw would likely keep prices sliding toward four-month lows.
- – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
- – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
- – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
- – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
- – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
- – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – CAD (MED)
by , 2025.03.02