Ostrzeżenie o Ryzyku: Kontrakty CFD są złożonymi instrumentami i wiążą się z dużym ryzykiem szybkiej utraty środków pieniężnych z powodu dźwigni finansowej. 88.11% rachunków inwestorów detalicznych odnotowuje straty w wyniku handlu kontraktami CFD u niniejszego dostawcy. Zastanów się, czy rozumiesz, jak działają kontrakty CFD, i czy możesz pozwolić sobie na wysokie ryzyko utraty pieniędzy.

88.11% rachunków detalicznych CFD odnotowuje straty.

Ostrzeżenie o Ryzyku: Kontrakty CFD są złożonymi instrumentami i wiążą się z dużym ryzykiem szybkiej utraty środków pieniężnych z powodu dźwigni finansowej. 88.11% rachunków inwestorów detalicznych odnotowuje straty w wyniku handlu kontraktami CFD u niniejszego dostawcy. Zastanów się, czy rozumiesz, jak działają kontrakty CFD, i czy możesz pozwolić sobie na wysokie ryzyko utraty pieniędzy.

Week’s main events (August 25 – August 29)

The global rate outlook will remain in focus next week as markets assess the durability of the Federal Reserve’s dovish signals from the Jackson Hole symposium. In the US, personal income, spending, and PCE price indexes will be in the spotlight, along with updated second-quarter GDP estimates. Other key data releases include durable goods orders (which account for the impact of tariffs), inflation data from Australia and Germany, and Canada’s latest monthly GDP figures. In Europe, the ECB meeting minutes could hint at whether policymakers see room for further rate cuts, and inflation data from key Eurozone countries will also be released. Additionally, Nvidia’s earnings will provide fresh insight into the sentiment in the AI world after the chip sector has outperformed other stocks in recent sessions.

Monday, August 25
Usually, Monday is an ordinary trading day with low volatility, but after the Jackson Hole symposium, the week may start very actively. Throughout the day, traders will be closely monitoring the release of New Zealand’s quarterly retail sales report. The indicator is expected to rise by 0.1%, compared to a 0.8% increase in the previous quarter. Weaker-than-expected figures could weigh on the New Zealand dollar. It is a bank holiday in the United Kingdom on Monday.
Main events of the day:
  • – New Zealand Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, August 26
On Tuesday, the key market events are the release of the RBA meeting minutes, the US Durable Goods Orders, and the US CB Consumer Confidence. The RBA minutes are widely expected to confirm easing policy amid cooling inflation (down to 2.7 %). This could pressure the AUD, although cautious language in the minutes might temper the reaction. The US Durable Goods Orders are likely to show a slight decline. A sharper-than-expected decline will strengthen the USD, demonstrating business resilience. The US Consumer Confidence Index, if it beats forecasts, will underscore stabilizing consumer sentiment, providing additional support to the USD.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 21:45 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, August 27
On Wednesday, an important inflation report from Australia will be released. The July reading is forecasted at 2.0% (versus 1.9% in June). If inflation aligns with or falls below expectations, RBA rate cut expectations may gain traction, potentially exerting downward pressure on the AUD. Conversely, a surprise uptick could provi

de temporary AUD support. Traders should also pay attention to crude oil inventory data. The previous report showed a surprising six million-barrel draw, leading to a sharp rally in oil. The upcoming data may similarly influence oil prices and related currencies. A larger-than-expected draw would support crude and export-oriented currencies, whereas a build could undercut them.

Main events of the day:
  • – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Thursday, August 28
On Thursday, market focus will be on the US second-estimate GDP and weekly initial jobless claims, critical gauges of economic momentum, as well as the release of the ECB’s meeting accounts, which may clarify the central bank’s policy trajectory. The US GDP forecasts estimate growth at around 3%, which is higher than the consensus. Confirmation of strong growth is a positive signal for the dollar and stock markets. As for the weekly report on unemployment claims, a decline is expected after an increase to 235,000. However, any data above the forecast will reflect a slowdown in the labor market and could undermine confidence in the pace of economic growth. The ECB minutes may give markets an insight into further steps regarding interest rates. A more dovish tone could put pressure on the euro.
Main events of the day:
  • – Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, August 29
The PCE Price Index data will become the most important Friday release for investors. This data is also taken into account by the Fed to adjust monetary policy. A modest month-over-month increase of around 0.1-0.2% is expected. With YoY inflation hovering around 2.6%, a higher reading could reinforce the Fed’s inclination to maintain hawkish policy, supporting the USD. A softer print may reduce rate hike expectations and weigh on the dollar. Also, investors should not miss the Tokyo Core inflation data, which is considered to be a leading indicator of national inflation. The July reading dipped to 2.9% YoY versus the 3.0% forecast, but still above BoJ’s 2% target. The mild cooling of inflation diminishes tightening expectations and pressures the JPY, though inflationary persistence still provides baseline support to the yen. As for Canada’s GDP report, growth in June was 2.2% year-on-year. In July, much more modest growth of 0.2% is expected. Weak GDP figures will reinforce expectations of policy easing and will be negative for the CAD, while an unexpected improvement will support the currency.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.08.25

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