Week’s main events (July 14 – July 18)

This week, US trade policy remains a key variable shaping global growth expectations and market performance. President Trump is expected to continue issuing formal tariff notifications to various trade partners, including the European Union, reinforcing concerns about escalating protectionism. On the data front, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be closely watched, with inflation anticipated to accelerate. At the same time, retail sales are likely to remain flat, highlighting a possible divergence between price pressures and consumption. In the UK, inflation data will also be released, offering insight into the Bank of England’s policy outlook. In the Eurozone, attention will turn to industrial production and trade balance figures, which will help gauge the region’s economic resilience amid external headwinds.

Meanwhile, China’s Q2 GDP is expected to remain above the government’s 5% growth target, suggesting ongoing policy support is yielding results. Investors will also shift focus to the start of earnings season. Major US banks will take center stage, with JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs reporting results, alongside global heavyweights such as TSMC, Johnson & Johnson, and Netflix. These earnings will provide critical insights into corporate health amid evolving macroeconomic and policy conditions.

Monday, July 14

The trading week kicks off with key macro data from Asia and Europe, but investor attention will primarily center on China’s June Trade Balance. The trade surplus is forecast to narrow slightly to $100B from $103.22B, but the real focus will be on export and import growth.
Exports are expected to accelerate to 5.5% YoY (from 4.8% YoY), indicating resilient external demand. Imports are projected to rebound to 2.5% YoY after last month’s 3.4% decline — a sign of improving domestic demand, which could boost global risk sentiment.

Main events of the day:

– Chinese Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);

Tuesday, July 15

A packed macroeconomic calendar on Tuesday will provide investors with key insights into global growth and inflation dynamics, with China’s Q2 GDP and US CPI data commanding the spotlight. China’s Q2 GDP is expected to slow slightly to 5.3% from 5.4% YoY. A miss could heighten concerns about China’s economic stability and its ripple effects on global growth and commodity demand. The US Headline CPI is forecast to tick up to 2.5% from 2.4% YoY, and Core CPI to 2.9% from 2.8% YoY. Any upside surprise could reignite hawkish sentiment around the Federal Reserve’s rate path, which is positive for the US dollar. A softer number would support equities, gold, and duration-sensitive trades. In Canada, annual headline inflation is forecast to ease to 1.5%, while the CPI median is seen slightly lower at 2.9%. With inflation moving toward the Bank of Canada’s target, this could reinforce the dovish tone following the recent rate cut. A dovish inflation print could weaken the CAD and strengthen rate-cut bets ahead of the next BoC meeting.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Chinese GDP (y/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– Chinese Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– Chinese Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– Chinese Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, July 16

Wednesday will bring a mix of inflation and production data, with a strong emphasis on the UK and US inflation figures. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will be crucial for shaping expectations on the Bank of England’s policy trajectory. Markets are watching to see if inflation continues its path toward the 2% target, or if sticky services inflation justifies a more cautious approach by the BoE. If CPI prints hotter than expected, it could reignite hawkish bets and support the GBP, while a soft print may increase the likelihood of a rate cut in Q3. While the headline US CPI was released on Tuesday, the PPI provides insights into inflationary pressures at the producer level. The forecast suggests a slight increase in the PPI report. A stronger PPI could support the USD and weigh on equities and rate-sensitive assets, especially if paired with solid output data.

Main events of the day:

– UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, July 17

Thursday brings a series of high-impact economic releases, with the spotlight firmly on the UK labor market, Eurozone inflation, and US retail sales. The Bank of England will be closely watching for signs that wage growth and job market strength are cooling, which would support the case for a rate cut later in the summer. A soft print across wages and jobs could weigh on the GBP and bolster UK gilts, while stronger-than-expected data would delay dovish expectations. The ECB has emphasized its focus on underlying inflation, especially services, and any stickiness here could temper expectations for aggressive rate cuts. If the headline or core figures surprise to the upside, it could lead to speculation that the ECB might adopt a more cautious approach to future rate cuts, supporting the Euro. A downside surprise, however, might embolden those calling for more rapid easing. In the US, retail sales are expected to rebound 0.2% MoM in June after a surprising 0.9% decline in May. If confirmed, it may signal stabilizing consumer demand, especially important for Q3 GDP tracking.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, July 18

Friday wraps the week with key data from Japan and the US, offering fresh insight into monetary policy paths for the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. Japan Headline CPI is expected to ease to 3.3% in June from 3.5% YoY, while core inflation is forecast to slow from 3.7% to 3.4% YoY. If the core CPI falls as forecast, or even more, it could support the BoJ’s current view that underlying inflation pressures are not yet strong enough to warrant aggressive rate hikes. This could lead to a weaker Japanese Yen as the interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies remains wide. Conversely, a surprise upside in inflation could lead to renewed speculation about further BoJ tightening, potentially strengthening the JPY. In the US session, preliminary July data is expected to show a decline in consumer inflation expectations to 4.7% from 5.0%. The Federal Reserve places significant importance on inflation expectations, as they can become self-fulfilling. A lower print could weaken the USD and lift risk sentiment across equities. However, any upside surprise would renew concerns about sticky inflation expectations, potentially boosting Treasury yields and the USD.

Main events of the day:

– Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.07.14

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