Week’s main events (July 07 – July 11)

This week, investor focus will center on the escalating trade developments in the United States as the July 9 deadline approaches, marking the end of the tariff pause announced in April. The Trump administration has begun sending formal notices to trade partners outlining the specific tariff rates they are likely to face. As of July 4, only a handful of partial deals have been secured, notably with the UK, Vietnam, and a framework agreement with China. Markets will also pay close attention to the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, with traders seeking more clarity on the Fed’s policy stance for the remainder of the year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to maintain a cautious, wait-and-see approach.

On the data front, the economic calendar is relatively light. Globally, key releases include China’s consumer and producer price indices, the UK’s monthly GDP data, Canada’s labor market report, and monetary policy decisions from the central banks of Australia and New Zealand.

Monday, July 07

Monday marks the start of the week with a relatively light calendar. Still, key economic data from Sweden and the Eurozone could shape market expectations for monetary policy in both regions. Sweden will publish its inflation rate. The forecast stands at 0.4% y/y, up from the previous reading of 0.2% y/y. With inflation gradually picking up and the Swedish economy showing signs of resilience, the central bank may adopt a more cautious stance at its next policy meeting. Eurozone Retail Sales are expected to decelerate to 1.7% y/y from 2.3% y/y. A slowdown in consumer spending would support the narrative of a cooling economic environment across the bloc, potentially reinforcing the European Central Bank’s recent dovish signals.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Average Cash Earnings (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, July 08

Tuesday’s trading session is dominated by events from Australia, where all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates from 3.85% to 3.60%, responding to softening domestic data and growing signs of a global economic slowdown. If the RBA signals the possibility of further easing, it could weigh heavily on the Australian dollar (AUD), particularly against higher-yielding currencies and safe havens. However, if the RBA delivers a „dovish cut” but expresses caution about future moves, the AUD downside might be limited. Later in the day, attention turns to Germany’s trade balance, which may provide insights into the health of the eurozone’s largest exporter.

Main events of the day:

– Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Rate Statement at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Press Conference at 08:30 (GMT+3);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, July 09

Wednesday brings a wave of high-impact macroeconomic releases, with China’s inflation data, the RBNZ policy decision, and the FOMC meeting minutes taking center stage. China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain in deflationary territory at 0.1% y/y, unchanged from the previous month. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is forecast to slightly improve to 3.2% year-over-year (y/y) from 3.3%, although it still reflects deep industrial deflation. Persistently negative inflation readings may strengthen expectations for further monetary or fiscal stimulus from Beijing, particularly as domestic demand remains weak. Market reaction could be particularly notable in commodity-sensitive currencies (like AUD and NZD) and in Chinese equities. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at 3.25%, maintaining a cautious stance amid moderate inflation and cooling economic activity. Traders will focus on the RBNZ Rate Statement for any shift in tone — a neutral or slightly dovish message could weigh on the NZD, especially if paired with softer risk sentiment. Later in the session, the release of the FOMC minutes from the June meeting will be a key driver for the USD and risk assets. With the Fed taking a cautious approach because of tariff uncertainty, traders will be parsing the language for clues on how confident officials are about inflation easing and whether a September rate cut remains on the table.

Main events of the day:

– China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– UK FPC Meeting Minutes at 12:30 (GMT+3);
– Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

Thursday, July 10

Thursday’s economic calendar features key inflation indicators from Japan and Norway, providing insight into the path of monetary policy in two distinct interest rate environments. Japan’s PPI is forecast to slow from 3.2% to 3.0% y/y. Since PPI acts as a leading indicator for consumer inflation, a softer print may reinforce concerns that inflation momentum is fading. A continued downtrend in inflation could reduce the likelihood of additional tightening later in the year. It may put renewed pressure on the yen, especially if global central banks begin to cut rates more aggressively. Norway’s headline CPI is expected to edge up slightly from 3.0% to 3.1% y/y, keeping inflation well above the Norges Bank’s 2% target. A hotter-than-expected print may strengthen the case for keeping rates elevated for a longer period. The Norwegian krone (NOK) could see upward pressure in response, particularly against lower-yielding currencies.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, July 11

Friday brings a heavy batch of UK macro data and fresh labor market figures from Canada. The UK will publish a cluster of key indicators, including GDP (previous: -0.3%, forecast: 0.1% m/m) and Industrial Production (previous: -0.6%, forecast: +0.4% m/m): A modest rebound is expected after a sharp monthly contraction. A stronger-than-expected reading would ease fears of stagnation and support hawkish tones from the Bank of England (BoE), which may support the GBP. In Canada, labor market conditions are expected to remain broadly stable. However, any unexpected deterioration could revive speculation about a rate cut at the Bank of Canada (BoC). On the other hand, a solid report may support CAD, especially amid global policy divergence.

Main events of the day:

– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.07.07

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