Week’s main events (March 31 – April 04)

On the economic calendar, this week will be much calmer than the previous one, with Friday’s main event being the PCE core price index, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation. Also, this week, inflation data from the UK, Australia, Mexico, Singapore, and Japan will be released. Inflationary pressures are expected to ease slightly. Quarterly US and UK GDP data will be released on Thursday and Friday, showing how the economy is doing during the tariff uncertainty. And, of course, traders should not forget about geopolitics: Ukraine and Russia, with the participation of the United States, are trying to move forward in negotiations, but the process is very difficult. There has also been an escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. All these factors affect investor sentiment and assets such as oil, gas, and European indices.

Monday, March 31

Monday is expected to be a relatively calm day. In the Asian session, traders are waiting for the business activity data from China, which may affect the movement of Asian indices, especially HK50 and AU200. At the European session, pay attention to the German inflation data. Consumer prices are expected to show 2.3% in annualized terms, the same as in the previous month.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, April 01

The main event on Tuesday will be the RBA monetary policy meeting. The RBA is expected to keep the rate at 4.1% but may hint at a cut in the second half of 2025, which could slightly impact AUD. Traders will also assess business data on key economies’ manufacturing sectors. Most of the economies are still in contractionary territory, but the dynamics of recent months indicate progress. As a rule, the growth of this indicator is accompanied by the support of the national currency. In the Eurozone, the inflation report will be published, where further reduction of inflationary pressure is expected, increasing the probability of an ECB rate cut in June. This may put pressure on the EUR.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3)
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, April 02

No major news is expected on Wednesday. In the US session, traders may pay attention to the private employment report from ADP and the data on crude oil inventories. In recent weeks, crude oil inventories in Cushing have decreased, supporting oil prices.

Main events of the day:

– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, April 03

Thursday will bring various statistics for many countries. The most important report will be the Swiss inflation data. At the last meeting, the SNB cut the rate by 0.25%, confidently expecting a further decline in consumer prices. Traders should also pay attention to the US and Canada trade balance data. Also, on Thursday, OPEC+ countries will meet to discuss production quotas. If the cartel continues reducing production, it could put upward pressure on oil prices.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– German Services (m/m) PMI at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services (m/m) PMI at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– OPEC Meeting (m/m) at 12:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, April 04

Friday’s US jobs report will be in the spotlight. According to the March forecast, the economy added 139к new jobs, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings growth is expected to hold at 4.1% y/y. The dynamics of recent weeks indicate that the US labor market is slowly cooling down. March data could be a cold shower as it could dramatically increase the likelihood of a US Fed rate cut before the summer. Weak data will put downward pressure on the stock market.Along with the Nonfarm Payrolls report, Canadian labor market data will also be released. Economists expect employment to increase in March by 9.9k, better than 1.1k in February. The resilience of the labor market will positively impact the CAD. It’s a bank holiday in China.

Main events of the day:

– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 18:25 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.03.24

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