Week’s main events (March 10 – March 14)

This week is packed with key inflation data, central bank decisions, GDP data, and corporate earnings that could impact markets and currencies. The most significant events include the US CPI and PPI reports, the US JOLTS Job Openings, UK and Japan GDP data, and earnings reports from major companies like Adobe and Oracle. Traders will also pay attention to the cryptocurrency market, which saw strong sell-offs this weekend. Additionally, Canada might see the writ being dropped on an election call this week. It is also worth mentioning that news for those countries will be released an hour earlier due to daylight saving time in the United States and Canada.

Monday, March 10

Norwegian inflation data will be the main event on Monday. The overall figure is expected to rise sharply from 2.3% to 2.7% year-on-year, which will be a hawkish signal for the Norges Bank. Volatility on currency pairs with NOK will rise sharply.

– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, March 11

On Tuesday, investors will focus on the Jolts report on open jobs. This is the second most important report on the US labor market after Non-Farm Payrolls. Job openings are expected to rise from 7.6M to 7.71 M, which may be very optimistic for the US dollar’s strength as it will show the strength of the labor market.

– Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, March 12

Wednesday is expected to be a volatile day in the US session. The US inflation report will be published. This data is crucial for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. The main rate is expected to decline from 3.0% to 2.9% in annualized terms, while the core report is expected to decline from 3.3% to 3.1%. This is a negative scenario for the USD, as lower inflation will increase the likelihood of a rate cut by the US Fed at the May meeting. The Bank of Canada’s monetary policy meeting will follow. It is expected that the BoC will continue to cut rates and lower the rate from 3% to 2.75%. Following last week’s tariff announcement from the US, swap markets raised the probability of a rate cut to 85% from around 50% at the end of the previous week. The Canadian dollar may come under pressure, especially because Canada is about to elect a new Prime Minister.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:45 (GMT+2);
– Indian Inflation Rate (m/m) at 12:30 (GMT+2);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– Canada BoC Rate Statement at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– Canada BoC Press Conference at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

Thursday, March 13

On Thursday, the US will release February producer price index data, which will shed light on wholesale price changes and potential inflationary pressures in manufacturing. Producer inflation is important because it is a preliminary indicator of future consumer inflation. The decline in producer inflation may put additional pressure on the US dollar. Traders should also keep an eye on natural gas inventories. Natural gas prices are currently at monthly highs, and there are fundamental factors for medium-term growth.

Main events of the day:

– Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

Friday, March 14

On Friday, investors will focus on economic data from the UK. The main report will be GDP for the quarter. A modest 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth is expected, better than the previous 0.1%. If the data comes out worse than expected, the GBP could experience a short-term sell-off.

Main events of the day:

– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2025.03.10

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