Week’s main events (February 24 – February 28)

This week is expected to be quieter than the previous week. Geopolitics remains in the foreground: the situation with the Ukraine peace deal on the third anniversary of the Russian invasion, the election of a new German Chancellor, and Trump’s tariff policy. In terms of economic news, traders will turn their eyes to Australian and Eurozone inflation data, the Fed’s preferred PCE Price Index inflation report, and US quarterly GDP data.

Monday, February 24

Europe’s inflation report will be released on Monday. Overall inflation is expected to fall from 2.5% to 2.4% y/y, while core inflation (excluding volatile food and energy prices) is expected to remain at 2.7% y/y. The swaps market has calmed down, and we expect two more ECB rate cuts in 1H25 and one in the second half. Main events of the day:

– Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
– German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, February 25

On Tuesday, traders will be closely monitoring Germany’s quarterly GDP data. Europe’s largest economy is expected to stagnate (forecast 0.2% y/y), which could negatively impact the euro. Main events of the day:

– German GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, February 26

Asian traders will see strong volatility on Wednesday. Australia will release its inflation report. Consumer prices are expected to fall slightly from 2.6% to 2.5% y/y. This scenario is already priced in, so the price will react if the data differs. If inflationary pressures show a faster rate of decline, it could put pressure on the AUD, as it would increase the probability of further rate cuts from the RBA. The US Crude Oil Reserves data, which greatly impacts oil prices, should also focus. The volatility of WTI and BRENT prices could rise sharply.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan BOJ Core CPI (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– G20 Meetings (Day 1).

Thursday, February 27

On Thursday, investors may pay attention to the quarterly US GDP report. A 2.3% reading is expected, down significantly from 3.2% last month. Despite the growth, the US dollar may come under pressure. Commodity traders should closely monitor the weekly natural gas inventories report. Gas prices have risen sharply amid cold weather and low supply.

Main events of the day:

– Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– G20 Meetings (Day 2);

Friday, February 28

A lot of economic news is expected on Friday. The PCE Price Index report, the preferred inflation gauge for the US Fed, can be highlighted. The headline PCE deflator for January maybe 2.5%, down from 2.6%, and the core deflator maybe 2.6%, down from 2.8% in December. A decline in PCE inflation will negatively impact the US dollar as it increases the likelihood of a rate cut by the US. In Japan, the Tokyo Inflation Report will be published, which is considered a leading indicator of national inflation. A decline in consumer prices may put temporary pressure on the Japanese yen. Also, on Thursday, Canada will report fourth-quarter GDP data. Canada’s economy has seen very modest growth in recent months, which probably won’t change this time. The swap market estimates the probability of a rate cut at the next meeting of the Bank of Canada on March 12 at almost 50%. Therefore, GDP growth will reduce this probability, which is positive for CAD and vice versa.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2025.02.24

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