Week’s main events (February 10 – February 14)

Investors and traders will watch closely this week for new inflation data in the United States and Switzerland. Inflationary pressures are expected to decline further in the United States, which may increase the likelihood that the FOMC will continue to cut rates. However, any signs of sustained price pressures could push bets that the Fed will hold rates longer, supporting the dollar index. Inflation is expected to fall in Switzerland, which may lead to a softer stance of the SNB. GDP data from the Eurozone and the UK will also come out this week. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and a key indicator of the economy’s health. And, of course, traders should not miss the retail sales data in the United States on Friday.

Monday, February 10

On Mondays, traders should pay attention to speeches by central bankers. Very often such speeches give hints about further steps in monetary policy. Inflation data will be released in Norway, where price pressures are expected to ease, which could have a negative impact on NOK.

Main events of the day:

– Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 16:00 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, February 11

The main event on Tuesday will be the speech of the head of the US Fed, Jerome Powell, before the Congress. Most likely, Powell will say the same thing as he did at the last FOMC press conference when the rate was maintained. This scenario is unlikely to cause additional volatility in the market, but any surprise in the form of a hint of further rate cuts could put pressure on the US dollar. It’s a bank holiday in Japan.

Main events of the day:

– Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:15 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Chair Powell Testimony at 17:00 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, February 12

The main event on Wednesday will be the consumer price index in the United States. US inflation is expected to stale at 2.9% y/y. The core report (excludes food and energy prices) is expected to decline from 3.2% to 3.1% y/y. Even a slight decline in inflation, amid a cooling labor market, will increase the likelihood of a FOMC rate cut at the next meeting, which is negative for the US dollar but positive for indices and gold. Also not to be missed is the weekly crude oil inventories report. The WTI benchmark recorded its third consecutive weekly decline, mainly due to escalating trade tensions. A decline in inventories will help oil regain some of its lost ground.

Main events of the day:

– Indian Inflation Rate (m/m) at 12:30 (GMT+2);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Chair Powell Testimony at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

Thursday, February 13

A lot of different news will be released on Thursday. In Switzerland, the inflation report will be released, where price pressures are expected to decrease further, which may influence the SNB’s policy to cut rates further. The UK’s GDP report for the 4th quarter will be released. The UK economy stagnated in the third quarter, so if the report is weak again, the pound will be under pressure. Also, traders will focus on the US PPI report on Thursday. This is a report on producer inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 04:00 (GMT+2).
– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);

Friday, February 14

On Friday, traders will focus on 2 major reports — Eurozone GDP data for the 4th quarter and US retail sales data. The EU bloc’s report is expected to be weak after a shocking 2.4% drop in German GDP. The US retail sales are forecast for no growth, which may put additional pressure on the US dollar.

Main events of the day:

– Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2025.02.10

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