Week’s main events (September 23 – September 27)

This week will be less eventful than the previous week, but there are still a few important economic events that investors should pay attention to. One of the main events this week will be the publication of data on the PCE index, which is on the US Federal Reserve’s list of monitored inflation indicators. The Fed may have surprised markets by cutting rates by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points at its September meeting. Still, it’s worth noting that policymakers have yet to declare victory over inflation. However, this week’s most essential events will be the RBA and SNB meetings. The SNB is expected to cut the rate by 0.25%, while the RBA would prefer to leave rates unchanged amid slowly declining inflation. Investors should also evaluate the Australian inflation data, which will be released on Wednesday, and PMI data, which will be released on Monday and will show the state of the economy of the leading countries.

Monday, September 23

Flash PMI data, released on Monday, will provide the latest snapshot of the global economy. Economists expect manufacturing activity data to continue to decline, which could support currencies as it increases the likelihood of a rate cut. It’s a bank holiday in Japan.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, September 24

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold a monetary policy meeting. Policymakers are expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.35%. A major policy turnaround is unlikely until the November meeting, when economic predictions will be updated.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Rate Statement (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German IFO Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 19:55 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, September 25

On Wednesday, investors’ focus should be on Australian inflation data. The annual inflation rate is expected to decline from 3.5% to 2.8% y/y. This will sharply increase the probability that the RBA will cut the rate in November, which could negatively affect the aussie against the US dollar. Also, traders should pay attention to Wednesday’s Swedish Central Bank meeting. The Riksbank is expected to cut the rate from 3.5% to 3.25%, which could negatively influence the Sweden krona (SEK) against major currencies.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, September 26

The main event on Wednesday will be the meeting of the Swiss National Bank, where a rate cut from 1.25% to 1.00% is expected. SNB Governor Thomas Jordan will hold his last meeting on Thursday before retiring. Also, on Wednesday, investors should pay attention to the US GDP data. The economy is expected to show a 2.9% quarterly growth, which may temporarily support the US dollar. In the afternoon, FOMC representatives will speak one after another. Their comments are worth evaluating from a medium-term perspective.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland SNB Policy Rate at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Collins Speaks at 16:10 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 16:15 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 16:20 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:25 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3)
– US FOMC Member Collins Barr at 16:10 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Collins Cook at 16:10 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).

Friday, September 27

Due out on Friday, the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator will show whether price pressures continue to ease. Economists expect August’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to show a 2.5% annualized rate. A rise in this indicator could support the US dollar, but it also works in the opposite direction. Also, on Friday, traders’ interest will be directed to the data on inflation in Tokyo, which is considered a leading indicator of inflation. Inflation in Tokyo is expected to fall from 2.4% to 2.0%, which may become a problem for the Bank of Japan policy and hurt the yen.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2024.09.23

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