The most important event this week will be the US inflation data. Inflation is expected to continue to decline, which is likely to increase further the probability of the first FOMC rate cut in April. Market watchers will also be watching the retail sales data for February, which is expected to increase by 0.8% after falling by the same amount a month earlier. On Tuesday, the UK will release its latest employment report. Investors and the Bank of England will focus on wage growth amid speculation over the timing of the first rate cut.
Also, the cryptocurrency market should be noticed. Bitcoin hit an all-time high last week, helped by investor demand for the new US spot bitcoin ETFs launched this year and expectations of lower global interest rates. Billions of dollars have poured into ETF funds over the past few weeks. In addition, the market has been supported ahead of an expected upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain platform. On a separate note, it is worth emphasizing that in the US this weekend, the time was shifted to daylight saving time (one hour back).
Monday, March 11
The main event on Monday will be Japan’s GDP data. Quarterly GDP is expected to be 0.2%, while annualized GDP is expected to be 0.9%. GDP growth will support the Japanese currency as it will support the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) imminent move away from negative interest rates. No important economic events are expected in the European and US trading sessions.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, March 12
Investors and traders will eagerly await US inflation data on Tuesday. The data is expected to show a further reduction in inflationary pressures, which is expected to increase the likelihood of a rate cut as early as April. But any surprise in the direction of rising consumer prices could trigger sharp dollar buying. Traders should also pay attention to the labor market data in the United Kingdom. Investors and the Bank of England (BoE) will focus on wage growth amid speculation over the timing of the first rate cut. Average hourly wages are expected to rise from 6.2% to 6.3% y/y, increasing the likelihood that the BoE will hold rates at current levels longer than the ECB and the US Fed. This situation is positive for the British currency.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, March 13
On Wednesday, the Eurozone will release industrial production data for January. The December report showed a strong increase in output, reversing a year-long decline. Another strong reading would be an encouraging sign for GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024. Investors should also pay attention to the UK GDP data. The economy is expected to grow by 0.1% monthly.
Main events of the day:
- – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).
Thursday, March 14
On Thursday, investors will focus on US Producer inflation and retail sales data. Producer inflation is important because it is a preliminary indicator of future consumer inflation. Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.8%. Traders should also keep an eye on natural gas inventories. Natural gas prices are currently at their lows, and with global producers cutting production, there are fundamental factors for medium-term growth.
Main events of the day:
- – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).
Friday, March 15
The US industrial production data is the main economic event on Friday. Traders will also keep a close eye on consumer sentiment data. These reports are a good indicator of the current economic situation. Separately, it is worth mentioning that on March 15, there will be a quarterly expiry of futures contracts, which may lead to increased volatility as funds will close and move their positions to a new contract.
Main events of the day:
- – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
- – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).
by JustMarkets, 2024.03.11
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