Week’s main events (March 02 – March 06)

The upcoming week will be critical for global markets due to the coincidence of key economic releases and a sharp escalation in the Middle East. On February 28, 2026, the situation in the Persian Gulf shifted into a phase of open conflict: following joint US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military facilities as part of Operation “Epic Fury,” Tehran launched retaliatory missile strikes against US bases in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Explosions rocked Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai, prompting the closure of airspace over the region and an inevitable spike in the “war premium” on oil and gold prices when trading opens on Monday.

Against this explosive backdrop, investors will analyze Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the US, China, and the Eurozone, while also awaiting the February US labor market report (Non-farm Payrolls), which will determine the Fed’s readiness to cut rates. In the UK, the focus will shift to the Treasury’s “Spring Statement” on March 3, where Keir Starmer will attempt to stabilize confidence in the pound following political scandals. In Beijing, the “Two Sessions” will begin on March 4, where China will present an ambitious 15th Five-Year Plan with an emphasis on technological sovereignty. In the context of a new war in the Middle East, this could radically reshape global investment flows toward defensive and commodity assets.

Monday, March 02

On Monday, investors will focus on manufacturing sector business activity data across key economies. It’s a leading indicator of economic health. A value above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, and a value below 50.0 indicates contraction. A strengthening of the national currency usually accompanies the indicator’s growth.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (LOW)
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 23:10 (GMT+2). – AUD (LOW)

Tuesday, March 03

The most critical events for Tuesday are the Eurozone CPI and the UK Annual Budget, which are poised to drive volatility for the EUR and GBP. With Eurozone inflation forecast to hold at 1.7%, matching or missing this expectation would likely reinforce the narrative of impending ECB rate cuts, applying downward pressure on the euro. Conversely, any upside surprise would force a market repricing of ECB policy, potentially providing the currency with a short-term lift. Simultaneously, the UK Annual Budget release will be closely scrutinized for fiscal guidance, with the OBR expected to forecast 1.4% growth for 2026. If the Chancellor signals tighter fiscal policy or reveals lower-than-anticipated growth projections, the British pound could face selling pressure as investors digest the impact on economic expansion and future Bank of England interest rate decisions.

Main events of the day:

– China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 03:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
– UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 16:15 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

Wednesday, February 25

On Wednesday, the most impactful data points are the Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Eurozone Final CPI readings. In Australia, the annual inflation rate is expected to remain sticky at 3.7%-3.8%, staying well above the RBA’s 2-3% target range. Following Governor Bullock’s recent hawkish stance and a surprise rate hike to 3.85% earlier this month, a high reading would reinforce expectations of another hike in May. This would likely strengthen the AUD as market prices in a more aggressive RBA compared to other central banks. In the Eurozone, the final core CPI for January is forecast to be confirmed at 2.2%, marking a return to the ECB’s target. While “final” readings often confirm the preliminary ones, any upward revision would be a significant “hawkish” surprise, potentially boosting the EUR by dampening hopes for immediate spring rate cuts. Conversely, confirmation of the cooling trend, combined with expected weak German GDP data (forecast at 0.3%-0.4% YoY) released earlier that morning, could weigh on the Euro, highlighting the stark contrast between falling prices and stagnant growth.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
– German GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
– Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2); – HKD (MED)
– Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 10:40 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)

Thursday, February 26

On Thursday, the primary focus shifts to the health of the US labor market and the energy sector with the US Initial Jobless Claims and Natural Gas Storage reports. Following a surprisingly strong drop to 206,000 in the previous week, jobless claims are forecasted to stabilize around 210,000. A result that remains near these multi-month lows would provide further evidence of a resilient labor market, reinforcing the “hawkish” narrative that the Federal Reserve has no immediate pressure to cut rates. This would likely strengthen the USD and put downward pressure on Gold and US Treasuries. In the energy markets, the EIA Natural Gas Storage report is expected to show a withdrawal of approximately 144–148 Bcf. While this represents a seasonal decline, recent data show that inventories are starting to erase their deficit compared to the five-year average. A smaller-than-expected withdrawal would be seen as “bearish,” potentially driving Natural Gas prices down.

Main events of the day:

– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:30 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)

Friday, February 27

A lot of economic news is expected on Friday. The market focus centers on the Tokyo Core CPI, Canada’s GDP, and the US PPI. In Japan, Tokyo’s Core CPI is forecasted to slow significantly to 1.7% from 2.0%, primarily due to government utility subsidies. This drop below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target would likely cool expectations for an April rate hike, potentially weakening the JPY. On the other side of the Pacific, Canada’s fourth-quarter GDP is expected to show moderate monthly growth of 0.1%, with the quarterly figure likely to be negative. A result in line with or above this forecast would indicate that the Canadian economy is weathering the period of high interest rates better than feared, which could provide support for the Canadian dollar despite recent trade uncertainty. But if the data turns out to be worse than expected, the Canadian could come under heavy pressure. In the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month, maintaining an annual growth rate of around 3.0%. After stronger-than-expected growth in service prices and core PPI last month (which reached 3.3%), markets are extremely sensitive to “persistent” inflation. A higher-than-expected reading would signal that inflationary pressures are still spreading through the production chain, likely pushing up US Treasury yields and strengthening the dollar, as it would push back any Fed rate cuts to the second half of the year.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (LOW)
– Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2); – CHF (LOW)
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

by JustMarkets, 2025.02.23

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