Week’s main events (October 20 – October 24)

This week, markets are focused on a series of Chinese macro indicators (GDP, Labor Market, Retail Sales), the PBoC decision, and the results of the fourth plenum of the Communist Party, which sets political and industrial priorities for the coming years. New Zealand and Canadian inflation data are also important for commodity-sensitive currency pairs (AUD, NZD, CAD). Inflation reports are also expected in the UK and Japan. Against the backdrop of the escalating tariff dispute between the US and China and the third week of the US government shutdown, some important US releases may be delayed, which amplifies the role of each published figure and leaders’ speeches in creating volatility. Flash data on PMI indices in the Eurozone, Germany, the UK, India, Japan, and Australia will be published in other countries. The US corporate earnings season is also entering an active phase: major companies such as Tesla, GE, Netflix, IBM, Intel, AT&T, Verizon, P&G, and Coca-Cola are expected to present their results.

Monday, October 20

On Monday, traders’ attention will be focused on macroeconomic data from China. First, this is the PBoC’s decision on key interest rates. Both the 1-year and 5-year rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively. Second, from a macroeconomic perspective, attention will be focused on China’s GDP data (projected +4.7% y/y, current figure +5.2% y/y) and industrial production figures (projected +5.0% y/y, current figure +5.0% y/y). Weak data is likely to cause a weakening of the CNY, a fall in Chinese indices (FTSE China A50, Hang Seng HK50), and pressure on commodity markets (metals, energy) due to the risk of lower demand. However, any hints of policy easing from the PBoC could restore confidence and support risk assets. Also on Monday, the Chinese Communist Party’s plenum will begin, where 5-year plans, technological self-sufficiency, and a strategy for rare earths will be discussed – its decisions may have a long-term impact on industrial support policies and export restrictions. Traders should also pay attention to New Zealand’s inflation data on Monday, which is published quarterly (projected +2.7% y/y, current +2.9%). Lower inflationary pressure could support the NZD as it weakens the RBNZ’s dovish stance.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 00:45 (GMT+3);
– China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+3);
– China GDP (q/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Industrial Production (y/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Retail Sales (y/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada BOC Business Outlook Survey at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– China Communist Party Fourth Plenum (All Day).

Tuesday, October 21

On Tuesday, traders will focus on two key reports: New Zealand’s trade balance (published quarterly) and Canada’s monthly inflation data. New Zealand is expected to see a widening deficit, which could negatively affect the NZD. In Canada, inflationary pressure is expected to ease from 2.2% y/y to 1.9% y/y. The median prognosis, which is also monitored by the Bank of Canada (BoC), is expected to be 3.0% y/y, down from 3.1% y/y last month. Given the strong labor market data for September, lower inflation will support the CAD as it reduces the likelihood of further interest rate cuts. The only counterbalance is the fall in oil prices, which could prevent the CAD (commodity currency) from strengthening.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 00:45 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– China Communist Party Fourth Plenum (All Day).

Wednesday, October 22

On Wednesday, traders will analyze UK inflation data (an important release for BoE expectations) and crude oil inventory data, a report that significantly affects the price of WTI and Brent. In the UK, consumer inflation is expected to rise from 3.8% y/y to 4.0% y/y. Higher inflation could support the GBP, as it would increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting. As for inventory data, last week’s data showed an unexpected increase in inventories, which put pressure on oil prices. Here, we should react to “What-If”. If inventories are published above the prognosis, we expect oil prices to fall, and vice versa.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Trade Balance (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:25 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– China Communist Party Fourth Plenum (All Day).

Thursday, October 23

On Thursday, traders will focus on Canadian retail sales data. A sharp increase is expected compared to last month (projected +1.0% m/m, last month -0.8% m/m), which could support the CAD. Due to the shutdown, US Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data may be postponed. Their publication could cause sharp short-term volatility for the USD and stock markets after a protracted government shutdown.

Main events of the day:

– Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Mexico Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3), (Tentative);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3), (Tentative);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– China Communist Party Fourth Plenum (All Day).

Friday, October 24

A wide range of PMIs for various countries is expected on Friday. PMI reports provide an early signal of the dynamics of the service and manufacturing sectors. As a rule, strong PMIs trigger risk-on sentiment, leading to currency appreciation. If the US government shutdown is lifted by Friday and the CPI report is published, this could lead to strong short-term volatility, even if the data does not differ significantly from expectations. But overall, the medium-term outlook should be as follows: falling inflation will increase the likelihood of an FOMC rate cut, which will negatively affect the USD but will be positive for risk assets. Among the large number of reports on Friday, it is also worth paying attention to the inflation data in Japan. Inflation is expected to rise from 2.7% to 2.9% y/y. Rising inflationary pressure will increase the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which is positive for the JPY.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3), (Tentative);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3), (Tentative);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3), (Tentative);
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3), (Tentative);
– US Michigan Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.10.20

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