This week, investors will closely monitor trade negotiations between the United States and its key partners, particularly the European Union, as the August 1 deadline for broad-based tariffs approaches. It also marks the busiest earnings week of the season, with mega-cap companies such as Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta set to release their financial results, alongside major firms like Boeing, PayPal, Visa, and Mastercard. In addition to corporate earnings, the week is packed with pivotal monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of Canada. On the macroeconomic front, markets will digest a series of critical data releases, including preliminary Q2 GDP estimates for the US and the Eurozone, Canada’s monthly GDP report, the US Non-Farm Payrolls employment data, and the US PCE inflation figures.
Monday, July 28
No significant economic releases are scheduled for Monday, and as a result, market volatility is expected to remain subdued.
Main events of the day:
- -No important news is expected on Monday, so the trading day will be relatively quiet.
Tuesday, July 29
On Tuesday, traders should pay attention to the JOLTS US labor market report. A decrease in the number of open vacancies is expected (current 7.77M, forecast 7.49M), which may give a negative vector for Friday’s main report. Negative report will put pressure on the dollar index.
Main events of the day:
- – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, July 30
Wednesday will be full of significant events. Australia is set to release its June Consumer Price Index data. It is expected that the inflation rate will remain at 2.1% y/y. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on August 12, and the futures market is already pricing in a nearly 25-basis-point cut (~93% probability), with a total of 57 basis points of easing expected by year-end. Weaker-than-expected or in-line inflation readings could place downward pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD). Attention will then turn to the US preliminary Q2 GDP report. A strong print would reinforce the narrative of a resilient economy and support the Federal Reserve’s patient stance on maintaining elevated interest rates. Robust data may strengthen the US dollar (USD) and lift US equity indices. Conversely, a downside surprise could rekindle concerns over a potential recession.
The Bank of Canada is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.75%, but the tone of the accompanying monetary policy statement and press conference will be key. Given the recent softening in economic activity and subdued inflation, markets will be attuned to any signals suggesting rate cuts later this year. A dovish tilt could weigh on the Canadian dollar (CAD), particularly against the USD and EUR. Despite mounting political pressure from Donald Trump, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its policy rate at 4.5%. Markets will focus on the FOMC statement and the press conference for updated forward guidance. A cautious tone could bolster the USD while pressuring gold and rate-sensitive US tech stocks. However, a surprise rate cut, especially if perceived as politically influenced, could trigger a broad sell-off in risk assets.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
- – German GDP (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada BoC Monetary Policy Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – Canada BOC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Statement (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Fed Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Fed Press Conference (m/m) at 21:30 (GMT+3).
Thursday, July 31
The main event on Thursday will be the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting. A policy change is highly unlikely at this stage. The central bank is also expected to release updated economic forecasts. Although Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter and uncertainty surrounding US tariffs remains elevated, the direction of risk is generally tilted to the downside. For the first time since April, swap markets are pricing in more than 20 basis points of tightening by year-end. The Japanese yen is likely to respond in a neutral to mildly bullish manner, depending on the tone of the policy statement and forward guidance. Also on Thursday during the US session, the Core PCE inflation report, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, will be released. On a year-over-year basis, a modest uptick is expected, rising from 2.3% to 2.5%, which would reinforce the FOMC’s stance on keeping interest rates elevated for an extended period. Such an outcome would likely support the US dollar. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data could increase the likelihood of a rate cut, providing a tailwind for riskier assets, such as equities and high-beta currencies. In Canada, another contraction in monthly GDP is anticipated, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and pointing to a negative quarterly growth figure. This would likely increase market expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of Canada, exerting further downward pressure on the Canadian dollar (CAD).
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, August 01
The most closely watched release on Friday will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. This data has the potential to trigger heightened market volatility, as it plays a key role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. According to analysts, overall labor demand remains subdued, despite the unemployment rate falling in June to a four-month low of 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are expected to show little to no change, indicating limited upward pressure on wages. A weaker-than-expected employment print (current estimate: 147K vs. forecast: 108K) could weigh on the US dollar, as it would likely reinforce market expectations for a Fed rate cut later this year. Also on Friday, traders should closely monitor the Eurozone inflation report. Headline inflation is expected to decline further (from 2.0% to 1.8% y/y), falling below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target. Given the backdrop of sluggish GDP growth, this would justify the ECB to maintain interest rates at current levels, potentially through the end of the year. While this scenario represents a constructive signal for the euro, any upside is likely to remain limited, and a sustained move above 1.20 against the US dollar appears unlikely in the medium term.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).
- – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Michigan Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
by JustMarkets, 2025.07.28
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