Week’s main events (April 14 – April 18)

Global markets will remain highly sensitive next week as investors continue to monitor developments on the trade front. Uncertainty over the impact of tariff escalation, particularly on the US economy, continues to dampen sentiment and drive volatility across all asset classes. On the economic calendar, the key publications will be US retail sales, China’s first quarter GDP growth data, UK inflation and labor market data, and CPI data in Japan and New Zealand. Meanwhile, several major central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada, are due to announce policy decisions. At the same time, the reporting season kicks off in the US with major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C), as well as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), American Express (AXP), and Netflix (NFLX).

Monday, April 14

On Monday, investors will focus on China’s trade balance data. Due to the tariffs, the balance sheet data may be worse than expected, hurting Asian indices.

Main events of the day:

– China Trade Balance (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, April 15

Tuesday will be a busy day in terms of economic events. The main report will be the Canadian inflation data. It is expected that inflation pressures will continue to decline. Continuing this trend in April could increase the odds of a rate cut on Wednesday, putting additional pressure on the Canadian dollar. The UK will publish labor market data, and this report will greatly influence the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision at the next meeting. Regarding wage inflation, a cooling labor market will increase the chances of a rate cut soon, which will be negative for the British currency.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, April 16

On Wednesday, traders will primarily focus on the Bank of Canada meeting. The BoC is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged at its April meeting, although if Tuesday’s inflation data shows a sharp decline, the Bank of Canada could be surprised. On Wednesday, traders will also be focused on inflation data in the United Kingdom and the Eurozone. Inflation in the United Kingdom is expected to decline from 2.7% to 2.6% year-on-year, while in the Eurozone, consumer prices are expected to remain flat. It is also worth keeping a close eye on the US Retail Sales data. Economists expect a sharp rise in sales, which could positively impact the US dollar’s strength.

Main events of the day:

– China GDP (q/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Industrial Production (y/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– Canada Monetary Policy Report at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– Canada BOC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, April 17

On Thursday, the ECB is expected to cut the rate by 0.25% from 2.65% to 2.40%. At the same time, the ECB could hint at a rate cut in June. The European currency may be pressured temporarily, even as the US dollar falls. Also, on Thursday, investors’ focus will be on labor market data from Australia and the inflation rate in New Zealand. Australia’s labor market is expected to increase, with unemployment forecast to jump from 4.1% to 4.2%, while the economy is expected to add 40.2k jobs compared to 52.8k last month. Such data can boost the AUD. In New Zealand, consumer price data are published quarterly, not monthly, as in other countries. Because of this, the impact on the NZD exchange rate is very high. A slight increase in inflation is expected (0.5%→0.7% q/q), which may support the NZD against the USD.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Rate Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Report at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);/li>
– Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, April 18

Most financial centers will be closed on Friday due to Good Friday. It’s a bank holiday in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland, Hong Kong, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada. However, Japan is not on that list, and an important report on overall national inflation is expected. Economists expect inflation to rise from 3.0% to 3.2% y/y. This will increase the probability of further rate hikes from the BoJ this year, which is positive for the JPY, which is now actively rising as a safe-haven currency on the back of carry-trade deals and tariff tensions.

Main events of the day:

– Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.04.14

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