Week’s main events (March 24 – March 28)

On the economic calendar, this week will be much calmer than the previous one, with Friday’s main event being the PCE core price index, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation. Also, this week, inflation data from the UK, Australia, Mexico, Singapore, and Japan will be released. Inflationary pressures are expected to ease slightly. Quarterly US and UK GDP data will be released on Thursday and Friday, showing how the economy is doing during the tariff uncertainty. And, of course, traders should not forget about geopolitics: Ukraine and Russia, with the participation of the United States, are trying to move forward in negotiations, but the process is very difficult. There has also been an escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. All these factors affect investor sentiment and assets such as oil, gas, and European indices.

Monday, March 24

Monday will see the flash release of the S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI indices. These preliminary March readings will provide timely information on business activity in major economic sectors. The manufacturing business activity index has shown signs of contraction in recent months, and any improvement could boost sentiment in industrial stocks. Also, inflation data from Singapore and Mexico will be released on Monday. No significant changes are expected, so traders can only count on a spike in volatility.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
– Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);;
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– US BoE Gov Bailey Speech at 20:00 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, March 25

Tuesday will be a relatively quiet day. In the Asian session, traders will pay attention to the minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting, which had no changes. In the US session, investors will evaluate data on the US real estate market and consumer confidence. The growth of these indicators usually leads to a strengthening of the US dollar.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Germany Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, March 26

Inflation data in Australia will be released on Wednesday. Consumer prices are expected to decline from 2.6% to 2.5% annually. Even a slight decline in inflation could increase the likelihood of a rate cut from the RBA at the next meeting. Wednesday’s highlights also include the UK’s February consumer price index. Consumer prices are expected to decline from 3.0% to 2.9% y/y. Such data may put additional pressure on sterling. Investors should also keep a close eye on the US Crude Oil Reserves. The energy market situation is now complicated due to increased geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Annual Budget Release (GMT+2);
– US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

Thursday, March 27

The main events on Thursday will be GDP data from the United States. The US economy is expected to grow 2.4% q/q, slightly better than the previous 2.3%. The US dollar could strengthen if the data comes out better than expected. Also of interest to traders may be a report on Australian retail sales, which will show how consumers spend money during high rates. Strong data tends to support the currency and vice versa. The Bank of Mexico will hold a monetary policy meeting later. It is expected to reduce the key rate from 9.5% to 9.0%, which may pressure the peso.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– US GDP (q/q) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– Mexico Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+2).

Friday, March 28

On Friday, inflation data will be published in Tokyo, a leading indicator of overall inflation in the country. No significant changes are expected compared to the previous month. In the American session, the US PCE report will be published and included in the Fed’s list of inflation indicators. It is expected to decline from 2.7% to 2.5% annually. This will be more negative for the US dollar, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut from the US Federal Reserve at its May meeting.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Germany Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2025.03.24

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