Week’s main events (March 03 – March 07)

It will be a volatile week. In the week in the US, investors will be keeping a close eye on the January Nonfarm Payrolls report and developments around trade tariffs, along with the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs. In the Eurozone, key events will be the ECB interest rate decision, January inflation data, and the unemployment rate. In addition, Swiss and Mexican inflation data will be in the spotlight. Also, geopolitical factors should not be ruled out, as after the quarrel between Zelensky and Trump in the Oval Office, there was a lot of uncertainty, which affected investor and business sentiment.

Monday, March 03

On Monday, investors will focus on business activity data in the manufacturing sector across key economies. It’s a leading indicator of economic health. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, and below indicates contraction. The strengthening of the national currency usually accompanies the growth of the indicator.

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
– Indonesian Inflation Rate (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, March 04

On Tuesday, investors will focus on the data on unemployment in Japan and the Eurozone and the minutes of the RBA monetary policy meeting, where the RBA lowered the interest rate for the first time in a long time. No significant changes are expected, so volatility will increase only at the moment of news publication.

– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, March 05

On Wednesday, Switzerland will update its inflation data. Inflationary pressures are expected to fall from 0.4% to 0.2% annually. Lower inflation may put pressure on the Swiss franc as it increases the likelihood of an SNB rate cut. Volatility on currency pairs with the CHF will increase. Also, on Wednesday, several countries will release data on the business activity index in the services sector. No significant changes are expected, so do not expect strong volatility.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 22:30 (GMT+2).

Thursday, March 06

The main economic event on Thursday will be the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting. It is expected that the ECB will continue to cut rates. A 0.25% rate cut from 2.75% to 2.5% is expected. This scenario is already priced in, so investors will also be directed to the ECB press conference, where ECB’s President Christine Lagarde will give more information on further steps. If Lagarde indicates a continuation of rate cuts, the Euro could be under strong pressure. Traders should not overlook trade balance data for several key economies, particularly the US, Canada, and Australia.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

Friday, March 07

The most important Friday’s release is the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and the Fed also considers this indicator to adjust monetary policy. The labor report is expected to be slightly better than the previous month’s. However, if the total labor market data indicates a cooling of the labor market, this will fuel speculation of a sooner rate cut by the US Fed. In turn, a strong report will indicate a robust labor market, pushing back the possibility of a rate cut and giving confidence to the USD. Also, on Friday, Canada will report labor market data. Here, we should act by analogy — a strong report is good for the currency, and a weak report is bad for the CAD. Also, on Friday, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell Powell will deliver testimony on monetary policy to a Senate committee.

Main events of the day:

– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2);
– Mexican Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2025.03.03

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