Week’s main events (February 17 – February 21)

This week, traders’ main focus will be on the RBA and RBNZ monetary policy decisions. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to kick off the easing cycle with a quarter-point rate hike, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to continue its aggressive course with a third consecutive 50 bps rate cut. On Wednesday, the FOMC will release the minutes of its last meeting, likely to emphasize the US Fed’s wait-and-see stance. Canada and the UK will present January inflation data, while investors will assess the preliminary PMI for February for key economies later on Friday.

Monday, February 17

Monday will be weakly volatile because of a bank holiday in the US and Canada. Therefore, traders’ main interest will be in the Japanese GDP data. The economy is expected to show 2.8% y/y growth from the previous 2.4% y/y.

Main events of the day:

– Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, February 18

Tuesday is going to be a busy day. In the Asian session, the RBA will hold a monetary policy meeting, which is expected to start a cycle of rate cuts. In the futures market, the probability of a quarter-point rate cut is about 87%. The Australian dollar could come under heavy pressure. Before the opening of the European session in the UK, important labor market data will be released. Unemployment is expected to fall from 4.5% to 4.4%, with average wages increasing from 5.6% to 5.9% y/y. A strong labor market will help to strengthen the pound. In the US session, traders will focus on Canadian inflation data. The data is expected to remain the same as last month, so the tariff threat will mainly influence the Canadian dollar. Canada is the largest source of US aluminum and steel imports, and 25% could hit the economy hard.

Main events of the day:

– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, February 19

Wednesday promises to be volatile. The RBNZ meeting will be held at the Asian session, where further aggressive rate cuts are expected. The swap market estimates the probability of another RBNZ half-point rate cut at 90%, bringing the cash rate target to 3.75%. Before the European session opens, UK inflation data will be released. Inflationary pressures are expected to rise sharply, reducing the probability of further rate cuts by the Bank of England. In the US session, traders will wait for the FOMC meeting minutes. Since Powell last week reiterated the US Fed’s intentions to hold rates now, the minutes will likely show nothing new, which may lead to a sluggish market reaction.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Wage Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand RNBZ Interest Rate Decision at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand RNBZ Monetary Policy Statement at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand RNBZ Press Conference at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).

Thursday, February 20

Several events on Thursday are important to pay attention to. The first is the Australian labor market data. Conditions are expected to deteriorate, which could pressure the Australian dollar. Next, China’s PBoC will release its interest rate decision. It is expected to be unchanged, but there may be surprises in the form of additional stimulus measures, which may positively impact Asian indices. The inflation report will be released in Hong Kong, where consumer prices are expected to rise slightly from 1.4% to 1.5% y/y.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China PBoC Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

Friday, February 21

Thursday will bring various Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI statistics for many countries. These data reflect the dynamics of the domestic economic sectors well. Also, on Friday, Japan will publish a nationwide inflation report. The report, released in Tokyo a few weeks ago, indicates that price pressures are intensifying. This will increase the likelihood of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, which will be positive for the yen.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2025.02.17

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