Week’s main events (April 22 – April 26)

This week’s main events will be the Bank of Japan meeting and the PCE index data, which is considered a more critical inflation indicator for the US Fed. Economists forecast PCE inflation to remain elevated in March. Recent data indicating that progress in the fight against inflation has stalled, along with solid labor market data, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have driven up oil prices, and comments from Fed officials, have caused investors to abandon expectations about the timing of rate cuts. As for the Bank of Japan, analysts do not expect any changes at this meeting. But there may be surprises.

Also this week, the US will release quarterly GDP data and Australia’s March inflation report. Growth is expected to slow in the US, while inflation may surprise the RBA with an increase in Australia. And remember the earnings season. Major technology companies such as Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA) and META are expected to report earnings this week.

Monday, April 22

The People Bank of China (PBoC) will update interest rates on Monday. No changes are expected, but it could potentially cause an increase in volatility on Asian indices. In the second half of the day, investors should focus on the speech of ECB President Lagarde.

Main events of the day:

– China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 18:30 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, April 23

On Tuesday, investors will closely monitor PMI data in the Eurozone, the US, and the UK, looking for any signs of inflation returning, especially in the services sector. Rising service sector inflation will help keep rates at current levels for longer. This is positive for national currencies but negative for indices.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, April 24

The main event on Wednesday will be consumer price data in Australia. The data is released every quarter and will likely strongly affect the pairs with AUD. The annual inflation rate is expected to fall, but the monthly rate could surprise with an increase. Traders should also pay attention to the crude oil report. The oil market remains tight, and this data will be necessary for oil price volatility.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Australia Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, April 25

Thursday is not expected to be an economic event at the European session, but the second half of the day will be saturated with US data. The main reports will be the US GDP and weekly labor market data. The US economy’s growth rate is expected to slow down. Traders should also pay attention to Natural Gas Storage, which significantly affects gas prices. It’s a bank holiday in Australia and New Zealand.

Main events of the day:

– Eurozone GfK German Consumer Climate (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, April 26

Friday will be full of economic events in various countries. In Japan, the central bank will hold its first monetary policy meeting. The interest rate will likely remain unchanged, so that the main focus will be inflation forecasts and Ueda’s press conference. Volatility on currency pairs with the Japanese yen may increase. Friday afternoon in the US will be another critical inflation report, the PCE Price Index, considered a more favored inflation gauge for the US Fed than the CPI report. If the PCE report shows stable inflation, it will further reduce the probability of the US Fed’s rate cut in the summer and give confidence to the USD.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Producer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Press Conference at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2024.04.22

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