Week’s main events (April 15 – April 19)

Geopolitics will be the primary focus this week. Iran’s attack on Israel caused a sharp spike in volatility in the financial markets, and this volatility will remain with us for a few more days, at least. Regarding economic events, traders will focus on inflation data in Canada, Japan, the Eurozone, the UK, and New Zealand this week. Inflationary pressures are expected to ease in all regions except Japan. On Tuesday, China will release a range of economic data, including first-quarter gross domestic product, retail sales, and industrial production for March, with market participants hoping for more clarity on the uneven recovery of the world’s second-largest economy. The first-quarter earnings season picks up with results expected from several major companies, including Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BAC) as well as Netflix (NFLX), Procter & Gamble (PG), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

Monday, April 15

On Monday, the US retail sales data will be released. Further growth in the figures is expected, which may give the dollar even more confidence.

Main events of the day:

– Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, April 16

Tuesday will be a busy day in terms of economic events. The main report will be the Canadian inflation data. It is expected that inflation pressures will continue to decline. Continuing this trend in March could increase the odds of a rate cut in June, which is currently less than 50%, which would put additional pressure on the Canadian dollar. The UK will publish labor market data, and this report will greatly influence the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision at the next meeting. The UK labor market has slowed significantly over the past year amid a slight contraction in GDP. Regarding wage inflation, a cooling labor market will increase the chances of a rate cut soon, which will be negative for the British currency. Also, on Tuesday, China will release a series of economic data that will greatly impact Asian indices.

Main events of the day:

– China GDP (q/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Industrial Production (y/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 20:15 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, April 17

On Wednesday, investors will focus on inflation data in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and the Eurozone. Economists expect consumer and producer prices to continue to fall. If the inflation outlook continues to improve, this will increase the likelihood of a rate cut. And since the UK and New Zealand economies are facing a technical recession, and the Eurozone economies are also on the way to recession, this will put additional pressure on national currencies. It should also be noted that the inflation data in New Zealand will have a more significant weight on the NZD volatility, as this report is published once a quarter in New Zealand. It is also worth keeping a close eye on the news about Crude Oil Reserves, which greatly impact oil prices.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3).

Thursday, April 18

On Thursday, investors will focus on labor market data from Australia and the United States. Australia’s labor market is expected to cool sharply, with unemployment forecast to jump from 3.7% to 3.9%. The economy is expected to add only 7.2k jobs compared to 116.5k last month, which will be negative for the AUD.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, April 19

On Friday, traders will be keeping a close eye on Japan’s inflation data. Inflation is expected to remain at roughly the same levels. Expectations of additional rate hikes from the BoJ remain muted, negatively impacting the yen. Nevertheless, the Bank of Japan seems to be subtly preparing the ground for intervention. On Friday, traders will also be assessing the UK retail sales report. It is expected to grow by 0.3%, better than 0% last month. This may support the GBP amid the absence of positive economic news from the UK.

Main events of the day:

– Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2024.04.15

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