Week’s main events (October 07 – October 11)

This week is full of important economic events. Firstly, traders will focus on the US inflation rate data. Economists are predicting a slight decline in inflation. This data, released after Friday’s jobs report, will likely set expectations for the size and pace of Fed rate cuts in the coming months. The Fed will release the minutes of its September meeting on Wednesday, and investors will look for indications of what officials think about the pace of further easing. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will also meet on Wednesday, and market watchers believe it may follow the Fed’s lead and cut rates by half a point. The UK is due to release monthly GDP and industrial production data. At the end of the week, the banking sector will open the US third-quarter reporting season. Also, this week, geopolitical risks will be in focus due to the escalating situation between Iran and Israel. Rising geopolitical risk could lead to the buying of assets such as gold and the dollar and potentially affect oil prices.

Monday, October 07

No major economic events are expected on Monday. The European session will see the release of the Eurozone retail sales report, which will show how the Europeans are spending money in a period of high interest rates. At the American session, it is worth paying attention to the speeches of the FOMC representatives.

Main events of the day:

– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 20:50 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, October 08

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its September meeting, and market watchers will look for opinions on its hawkish perspective. In the second half of the day, the speeches of FOMC representatives will be of interest.

Main events of the day:

– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 01:00 (GMT+3);
– Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Sweden Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 19:45 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Collins Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, October 09

The most important Wednesday release for investors will be the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which will provide more information on policymakers’ outlook for the future trajectory of interest rates. Investors often study meeting minutes, looking for some sort of advantage or insight into future rate decisions. Powell has already signaled that another rate cut may be needed this year. Also, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold a monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. And there is a high probability of a 0.5% rate cut, which could hurt the NZD. Also, in the US session, several FOMC representatives will comment on the monetary policy situation, which may cause increased volatility.

Main events of the day:

– RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 04:00 (GMT+3);
– RBNZ Rate Statement at 04:00 (GMT+3);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Logan Speaks at 16:15 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

Thursday, October 10

On Thursday, investors should closely monitor the US consumer price index data. Overall inflation is expected to fall from 2.5% to 2.3% y/y, while core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) is expected to fall from 3.2% to 3.1% y/y. Such readings increase the probability of more aggressive rate cuts by the US Fed in November, which is negative for the USD in the medium term. Thus, if the data points to some resilience in inflation, more investors may be convinced that the Fed will proceed as planned, cutting interest rates by 25 bps in each of its November and December decisions. This would, on the contrary, be supportive of the US dollar.

Main events of the day:

– US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 01:00 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, October 11

We will see the release of a big batch of UK stats on Friday. The main reports will be GDP and industrial production data. Disappointing figures may reinforce Bailey’s statements on the acceleration of interest rate cuts and push the pound down. Also, traders’ focus should be on the Canadian labor market data. Weak data will increase the probability of another rate cut by the Bank of Canada, which may pressure CAD. It’s a bank holiday in Hong Kong.

Main events of the day:

– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey (m/m) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2024.10.07

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