Week’s main events (January 19 – January 23)

All eyes turn to global inflation updates this week, headlined by the US PCE Price Index – a key inflation tracking indicator for the US Federal Reserve. Investors will also parse CPI data from the UK, Canada, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Singapore for clues on the global disinflationary trend. Forward-looking indicators will be in high demand as Flash PMIs are released across the Eurozone, UK, Japan, Australia, and the US. In the UK, the spotlight extends to labor market resilience and retail sales figures. Meanwhile, Asian markets will focus on China’s annual GDP results and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy announcement. On the corporate side, earnings season is gathering steam with high-profile reports from Netflix, 3M, Johnson & Johnson, Visa, Intel, and Procter & Gamble. Additionally, global leaders convene in Davos for the World Economic Forum, centered on the theme “A Spirit of Dialogue.”

Monday, January 19

Monday’s session centers on a high-stakes data dump from China, where investors will weigh fourth-quarter GDP figures against a backdrop of persistent structural headwinds in the real estate sector and cooling domestic demand. Consensus estimates suggest a slowdown in economic growth to 4.4%, potentially the softest pace in nearly three years. However, this may be partially offset by an anticipated acceleration in industrial production to 5.0% year-on-year. Conversely, a projected deceleration in retail sales to 1.2% would mark the weakest consumption growth since late 2022, underscoring the fragility of the Chinese consumer. Outside of Asia, the Canadian dollar will be in focus following the release of headline CPI, forecast to hold steady at 2.2%. At the same time, liquidity in the afternoon session is expected to remain thin due to a U.S. bank holiday.

Main events of the day:

– China GDP (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (LOW)
– China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– Eurozone Inflation Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– Canada Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
– Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey (m/m) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – CAD (LOW)

Tuesday, January 20

Tuesday’s session shifts the spotlight to the United Kingdom, where a critical labor market update is expected to show the unemployment rate easing to 5.0% for the three months through November, potentially offering the British pound a reprieve after a week of sustained dollar strength. However, the currency’s upside may be tempered by downbeat retail sales expectations, with volumes anticipated to contract for a third consecutive month. Over in Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is slated to announce its interest rate decision, with the central bank widely expected to maintain its policy status quo by holding the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively.

Main events of the day:

– China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:15 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
– UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 11:45 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks at 18:30 (GMT+2). – CHF (LOW)

Wednesday, January 21

Wednesday’s session is dominated by high-impact UK inflation data, with headline CPI projected to tick up to 3.3% year-on-year from 3.2%, and core inflation expected to align at the same level. Such a print would underscore the “sticky” nature of UK price pressures, likely reinforcing the Bank of England’s cautious stance on rate cuts and providing a tailwind for the British pound. Later in the day, the focus shifts to the Eurozone as ECB President Christine Lagarde takes the stage. Traders will be parsing her remarks for any policy shifts, which could trigger fresh volatility across euro crosses.

Main events of the day:

– UK Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 09:30 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

Thursday, January 22

Thursday’s primary focus lies on the United States, where the release of the PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, is expected to show a 0.2% monthly increase in both headline and core figures. Accompanying this is an updated estimate for third-quarter GDP, projected to confirm robust annualized growth of 4.3%. This combination could reinforce “higher-for-longer” rate expectations, bolstering the US dollar while pressuring risk-sensitive assets. Meanwhile, Norges Bank is widely anticipated to maintain its policy rate at 4.0%, continuing its restrictive stance to further cool the Norwegian economy and anchor inflation. Volatility is also expected in the New Zealand dollar following the release of quarterly CPI data. At the same time, the annual inflation rate is forecast to tick up to 3.1%, the quarterly pace is expected to moderate to 0.6%, providing a complex outlook for the RBNZ’s next policy moves.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
– Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2); – HK50 (MED)
– Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+2); – NOK (MED)
– US GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2); – XNG (HIGH)
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 19:00 (GMT+2); – WTI (HIGH)
– New Zealand Inflation Rate (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (HIGH)

Friday, January 23

Friday’s session concludes with a dense economic calendar, beginning in the Asian session with Japan’s national inflation report, which is projected to show a deceleration in annual price growth from 3.0% to 2.4%. This anticipated cooling of inflationary pressures likely clears the way for the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policy rate at 0.75%, with the subsequent press conference scrutinized for any pivot toward further normalization later in the year. Global market volatility is expected to remain elevated throughout the day as a wave of Flash PMI data for the manufacturing and services sectors is released across major economies. These leading indicators will serve as a definitive health check for global growth; robust readings above the 50.0 expansion threshold typically underpin domestic currency strength, while any unexpected contractions could trigger a flight to safety and weigh on risk-correlated assets.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
– Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
– Japan BOJ Policy Rate at 05:00 (GMT+2); – JPY (HIGH)
– Japan Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+2); – JPY (HIGH)
– Japan BOJ Outlook Report at 05:00 (GMT+2); – JPY (HIGH)
– Singapore Inflation Rate at 07:00 (GMT+2); – SGD (MED)
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US Michigan Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

by JustMarkets, 2025.01.19

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