Week’s main events (October 13 – October 17)

The Trump administration’s decision to impose tariffs on China caused sharp panic in financial markets at the end of last week. This week, any news regarding tariff tensions between the US and China will be accompanied by volatility. The US government shutdown is now in its third week, so the release of key economic data such as the consumer price index (CPI) and the Non-Farm Payrolls labor market report will continue to be delayed. Traders will be watching other scheduled data, such as inflation and trade data in China, industrial production in Europe, as well as labour market data and GDP in the UK. This week, markets will also turn their attention to the start of the US earnings season, when major banks, including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley, will report their results. Elsewhere, political events in Japan and France will remain in focus.

Monday, October 13

Weak volatility is expected on Monday due to a bank holiday weekend in the United States, Canada, and Japan. During the Asian session, traders will focus on China’s trade balance. Given Trump’s latest moves on tariffs against China, these figures could cause significant volatility in Asian indices.

Main events of the day:

– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, October 14

OOn Tuesday, traders should pay attention to the UK labor market data, as well as the speech by US Fed Chair Powell. The UK labor market as a whole is slowing down. The unemployment rate in the UK rose from 4.1% at the beginning of 2024 to 4.4% at the end of last year. Wage growth slowed and was less than 5% for the first time since mid-2022. Weak data could have an additional negative impact on the British currency. Powell’s words in the context of delayed official data (due to the shutdown) could be the main driver for the dollar and interest rates: a hawkish tone will support the US dollar, which is negative for risky assets, a dovish tone will cause the USD to fall and stocks to rise.

Main events of the day:

– Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speech at 19:20 (GMT+3);
– UK BOE Gov Bailey Speech at 20:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, October 15

On Wednesday, attention should be focused on inflation data in China. Inflation in China is in deflationary territory. However, a slight increase in inflation indicators is expected this time. Eurozone industrial production is important for the EUR and industrial sector stocks. A decline of 1.8% is expected, which could negatively affect the euro and German index. Unexpectedly strong growth will be positive for the EUR.

Main events of the day:

– China Inflation Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speech at 22:45 (GMT+3).

Thursday, October 16

On Thursday, attention should be paid to data on the Australian labor market, data on UK GDP, and speeches by central bank governors. Australia is expected to see employment growth of 20k, which is significantly higher than last month’s decline of 5.4k. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2-4.3%. Overall, this is a stable labor market, and such data may support the AUD. As for UK GDP, analysts predict modest growth of 0.1%. Data below this figure will have a negative impact on the British currency.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) (Tentantive);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) (Tentantive);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) (Tentative);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 19:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Macklem Speech at 20:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, October 17

On Friday, final inflation data will be published in the Eurozone. No significant changes are expected, but any surprise in the form of rising inflationary pressure could support the euro.

Main events of the day:

– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Building Permits (m/m) (Tentative);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.10.13

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