Week’s main events (August 04 – August 08)

The upcoming week is expected to be relatively subdued in terms of major economic events. Market participants will primarily monitor developments related to President Trump’s trade policies following the announcement of broad tariffs on August 1. Key central bank decisions are also anticipated from the Bank of England and Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). On the data front, trade balance figures are scheduled for release from the United States, Australia, China, Canada, and Germany. In addition, Canada will publish a labor market report, while Mexico is set to release its latest inflation data shortly before the Banxico policy meeting. Meanwhile, corporate earnings season remains active, with notable reports expected from Palantir Technologies, Walt Disney, AMD, Amgen, and McDonald’s.

Monday, August 04

On Monday, market attention will be centered on economic data from Switzerland, particularly the inflation report. Annual inflation is expected to remain at a historically low level of 0.1%. While this figure is unlikely to alter the Swiss National Bank’s policy stance, it may contribute to increased volatility in currency pairs involving the Swiss franc (CHF). Traders should be prepared for potential short-term fluctuations driven by the market’s reaction to the data. It’s a bank holiday in Canada and Australia.

Main events of the day:

– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, August 05

On Tuesday, investor focus will shift to the release of the Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes. Should the minutes indicate that policymakers are prepared to continue raising interest rates through the end of the year, the Japanese yen may gain upward momentum. Additionally, markets will monitor services PMI data from major economies. Stronger-than-expected readings in this sector typically support national currency appreciation, while weaker data may have the opposite effect.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, August 06

The key economic release on Wednesday will be New Zealand’s unemployment report. The unemployment rate is projected to edge up from 5.1% to 5.2% year-over-year, potentially adding downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and increasing the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Japan will also publish its wage growth data, with an annualized increase of 2.5% expected, significantly higher than the previous 1% reading. This could lend support to the Japanese yen, as accelerating wage growth is a leading indicator of inflation, which the Bank of Japan closely monitors in determining future rate hikes. In addition, traders will closely watch the release of US Crude Oil Inventories, a key data point that can significantly influence global oil prices and energy market sentiment.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Unemployment Rate (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Japan Average Cash Earnings (y/y) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, August 07

On Thursday, market participants will closely watch the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to lower its key interest rate from 4.25% to 4.00%, a move that could further pressure the British pound, which has already declined by over 3% in July. Traders will also monitor trade balance data from China, the United States, and Canada. China’s trade figures are particularly influential for Asian equity markets and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Later in the day, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will hold its scheduled policy meeting, with expectations for a rate cut from 8.00% to 7.75%. The Mexican peso recently touched a one-month low, driven by domestic economic concerns and renewed uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 22:00 (GMT+3).

Friday, August 08

On Friday, attention will turn to Canada’s labor market report. The unemployment rate is expected to decline slightly from 7.0% to 6.9%, while employment is forecast to increase by 15.3K, a notable slowdown compared to the previous month’s gain of 83.1K. A solid report would reinforce the Bank of Canada’s recent decision to maintain its policy rate at 2.75% and could provide support for the Canadian dollar. Markets will be particularly sensitive to any signs of continued labor market resilience or emerging weakness.

Main events of the day:

– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.08.04

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