Week’s main events (January 29 – February 02)

This week promises to be volatile due to a lot of important events. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the week’s main event, as it is one of the most significant parameters for the Fed’s monetary policy decision. Economists believe the labor market will add 177,000 jobs, slowing from 216,000 in January. Traders should pay special attention to the interest rate decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Fed. Both central banks are expected to keep rates unchanged. Traders should also pay special attention to the inflation data in Europe and Australia – a slight decline is expected in both. Investors should also keep a close eye on the OPEC+ meeting, which significantly impacts oil pricing. Also, do not forget about the earning season in the United States. This week, companies such as Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and many others will report.

Monday, January 29

No important news is expected on Monday, so the trading day will be relatively quiet.

Tuesday, January 30

The US JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence data will be the main reports on Tuesday. These events will cause a spike in volatility. Also, traders should not overlook the preliminary GDP reports from Germany and the Eurozone. Both reports may show a contraction in the economy for the 4th quarter, with Germany closer to a technical recession.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) a 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Germany GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, January 31

The main event on Wednesday will be the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Investors will be closely watching Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference after the meeting to see how officials interpret the latest economic data. Traders should also keep a close eye on inflation data. In Australia, inflationary pressures are expected to ease slightly, while in Germany, economists forecast a slight rise in consumer prices.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– German Retail Sales at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+2).

Thursday, February 01

Thursday, February 1 On Thursday, traders will mainly focus on the Interest Rate Decisions from the Bank of England. The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and indicate that rates should remain restrictive for an extended period of time. Traders should also pay attention to the Eurozone Consumer Price Index, where inflation is forecast to fall slightly. The OPEC+ meeting, which greatly impacts oil prices, should also be in focus. The volatility of WTI and BRENT prices could rise sharply.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– OPEC+ meeting (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
–– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

Friday, February 02

The most important Friday’s release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and this indicator is also taken into account by the Fed to adjust monetary policy. Weak data may suggest that high interest rates are finally starting to take their toll on the labor market, and better-than-expected employment numbers could bolster the case for the Central Bank to hold rates for as long as possible.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2024.01.29

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