Week’s main events March 16 – March 20)

In March 2026, the global economy is entering a “perfect storm” scenario, where the energy crisis in the Persian Gulf coincides with a decisive week for the world’s major central banks. The key event will be the Fed meeting on March 17-18, which will be Jerome Powell’s penultimate one as chair. Investors are waiting to see whether the regulator will risk starting a rate-cut cycle amid $100 oil or opt for a “hawkish pause” to contain the inflation shock. At the same time, the ECB and the Bank of England (BoE) will make their decisions, where, against the backdrop of falling eurozone GDP and the British pound, officials will have to balance supporting growth with combating imported inflation due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Monetary policy decisions will span all key markets: the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will assess the need for emergency policy normalization to prevent the yen from falling below 160. At the same time, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will leave interest rates unchanged as rising oil prices are expected to reduce deflation risks in the near term. Also, China will release a slew of data for the first two months of the year, including industrial production and retail sales, which will show how effectively the world’s second-largest economy is recovering following the recent trade truce with the US.

Monday, March 16

The most critical events for Monday are the China Industrial Production and the Canada Inflation Rate (CPI). China’s industrial output is forecast to grow at 5.2% for the combined January-February period, a slight acceleration from the end of 2025. A result that meets or exceeds this target would suggest that Beijing’s stimulus measures are gaining traction, potentially boosting the Australian Dollar (AUD) and regional indices such as the HK50. In Canada, the annual inflation rate for February is forecast to hold steady at 2.3%, while core inflation is expected to remain at 2.6%. If the CPI print surprises to the upside, it will likely strengthen the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as investors trim bets on imminent Bank of Canada rate cuts. Traders should also keep an eye on US Industrial Production (expected at 0.4% m/m): a strong showing here would reinforce the narrative of US economic exceptionalism, offering late-session support to the US Dollar (USD).

Main events of the day:

– China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

Tuesday, March 17

The most significant events on Tuesday will be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision and the release of the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany. The consensus view is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%. This shift in the consensus forecast is driven by persistent inflation and a strong labor market. Australia’s fuel reserves are critically depleted due to the conflict in the Middle East, which will push prices higher. If the RBA raises rates and maintains a “hawkish” tone at the press conference, this is likely to provide significant support for the Australian dollar (AUD). In Europe, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany is forecast to decline to 34.0-39.0 from last month’s high of 58.3. This expected decline reflects analysts’ growing caution regarding the sustainability of the eurozone’s recovery amid structural challenges in the industrial sector. A reading below 34.0 would signal a sharp deterioration in future expectations, likely putting downward pressure on the euro (EUR). Meanwhile, US pending home sales are expected to remain weak.

Main events of the day:

– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
– Australia RBA Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
– German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

Wednesday, March 18

On Wednesday, interest rate decisions are expected from the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) and the Bank of Canada (BoC). These events will be the main drivers for the USD, XAU, and CAD. It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will keep the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, as inflationary risks, exacerbated by rising energy prices, have dampened hopes for an early rate cut. The market’s focus will be on the updated economic projections (Dot Plot) and Jerome Powell’s press conference. If the Fed signals that rates should remain elevated through the end of 2026, this will likely trigger a rise in the US dollar (USD) and put strong pressure on gold (XAU). Conversely, any hints of a “soft pause” or confirmation that rate cuts are still expected this year will weaken the dollar and trigger a rise in precious metal prices. In Canada, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to keep its key rate at 2.25%, despite the recent jump in unemployment to 6.7% and the economic contraction in the fourth quarter. If Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem prioritizes combating new inflation risks over supporting the cooling economy, the Canadian dollar (CAD) could receive moderate support amid a “hawkish” pause. Additionally, it is worth monitoring US crude oil inventory data: if inventory growth exceeds expectations, this could put pressure on WTI crude, although geopolitical tensions remain a significant risk factor for price increases.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Trade Balance at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 15:45 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
– Canada BoC Press Conference at 16:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2); – WTI (HIGH)
– US FOMC Federal Funds Rate at 20:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
– US FOMC Statement at 20:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
– US FOMC Economic Projections at 20:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
– US FOMC Press Conference at 20:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
– New Zealand GDP (m/m) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (MED)

Thursday, March 19

Thursday is a massive „Super Thursday” featuring a cluster of central bank decisions that will set the tone for the quarter. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep its short-term rate steady at 0.75%, though markets are on the lookout for any signals of a hike toward 1.00% by June; a hawkish tone on wage growth would likely strengthen the Yen (JPY). Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are both forecast to maintain their current rates at 0.00% and 3.75%, respectively. For the CHF, the focus is on potential intervention threats due to low inflation (0.1%), while for the GBP, any emphasis on „sticky” services inflation could provide a boost to the Pound, as traders have largely priced out rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. Later in the day, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to keep its key interest rates unchanged, but all eyes will be on President Lagarde’s press conference. Given the heightened geopolitical uncertainty and energy price risks, a „vigilant” or hawkish stance regarding upside inflation risks could support the Euro (EUR), even if a hike isn’t imminent. Additionally, keep an eye on the Australia Unemployment Rate (forecasted to hold steady at 4.1%): a lower-than-expected figure would reinforce the RBA’s recent hawkish shift and provide further upward momentum for the AUD. These meetings collectively represent a critical juncture where any divergence in rhetoric will trigger sharp volatility across all major currency pairs.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Unemployment Rate at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
– Japan BoJ Policy Rate at 05:00 (GMT+2); – JPY (HIGH)
– Japan BoJ Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (HIGH)
– Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – CHF (LOW)
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
– Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2); – SEK (HIGH)
– Switzerland SNB Policy Rate at 10:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (HIGH)
– Switzerland SNB Press Conference at 11:00 (GMT+2); – CHF (HIGH)
– UK BoE Official Bank Rate at 14:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
– UK BoE Press Conference at 14:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2); – EUR (HIGH)
– Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2); – EUR (HIGH)
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US Natural Gas Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2); – XNG (HIGH)
– New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (MED)

Friday, March 20

The most critical events for Friday are the China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and Canada Retail Sales. The People’s Bank of China is widely expected to keep its 1-year and 5-year LPRs unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. While a „hold” is the baseline, any surprise cut would signal that Beijing is intensifying its fight against deflationary pressures, which would likely boost the HK50 and CHA50 indices in the short term. Conversely, a failure to ease rates despite weak Hong Kong inflation data (forecast at 1.1% YoY) could dampen investor sentiment in regional equities and pressure the Australian Dollar (AUD) as a proxy for China. Canada’s Retail Sales for January are forecast to grow by 1.5% m/m, a significant rebound from the 0.4% contraction in the previous month. A reading that meets or exceeds this target would suggest that the Canadian consumer is effectively weathering the „higher for longer” rate environment, providing support for the Canadian Dollar (CAD). However, a miss below 1.5% would reinforce the narrative of a cooling economy, likely leading to a weaker CAD. It’s a bank holiday in Japan.

Main events of the day:

– China PBoC Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:15 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– Hong Kong Inflation Rate at 10:30 (GMT+2); – HK50 (MED)
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2). – CAD (MED)

by JustMarkets, 2025.03.16

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