Week’s main events (January 12 – January 16)
This week, the spotlight falls on the US inflation report, which markets view as a key benchmark amid persistent price pressures and intensifying disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing and scale of policy easing. Additional focus will be on data on retail sales, producer prices, and the housing market, which will help assess the resilience of domestic demand and the dynamics of economic growth. In Europe, investors will receive updated UK GDP data, as well as statistics on industrial production and the Eurozone trade balance, providing clarity on the economic slowdown and the outlook for ECB policy. In Asia, attention will be concentrated on China, where foreign trade and lending data will be released, reflecting the impact of global protectionism and internal structural imbalances. Also, this week, the fourth-quarter earnings season kicks off in the US, led by the major banks, which will set the tone for assessing the health of the financial sector and consumer demand.
Monday is expected to be a fairly quiet day for volatility. No significant economic events are expected today that could have a major impact on assets. It’s a bank holiday in Japan.
The main event on Tuesday will be the US inflation report. The headline CPI is expected to remain at 2.7% y/y, while core inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.7%, with both indicators rising by 0.3% month-on-month. This report is unlikely to change the probability of the Fed’s interest rate trajectory, but it may cause volatility in the US dollar and gold.
- – Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
- – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
- – US Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)
On Wednesday, the most important release for investors will be the Producer Inflation Report in the United States. This report is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Values are expected to be similar to last month, which is likely to add to volatility. However, if the figures come in lower than expected, this could increase the likelihood of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in the first quarter of 2026, which could put pressure on the US dollar.
Also, traders should not miss the US Crude Oil Inventories data, which has a significant impact on oil prices. The oil market is currently oversupplied, and if reserves keep rising, oil prices will keep falling.
- – China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2). – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
- – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)
On Thursday, it is worth highlighting the economic data package from the United Kingdom. The focus will be on monthly GDP data, manufacturing output, and the trade balance. The UK economy is expected to have stalled in November after two consecutive months of 0.1% contraction, although improvements are forecast in both manufacturing and industrial production. This may offset the negative GDP report. Traders will also be interested in the natural gas inventory report. Volatility on this instrument remains high.
- – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
- – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
- – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
- – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
- – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)
- – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)
by , 2025.01.12