Week’s main events (January 05 – January 09)

In the first full week of the year after the holiday lull, markets are expected to see a noticeable upturn due to increased trading activity and a greater flow of macroeconomic publications. In the US, investors will focus on a block of labour market data, including the BLS December employment report, JOLTS and ADP statistics, as well as ISM business activity indices and consumer sentiment indicators from the University of Michigan. In Asia, the focus will shift to China, where PMI figures will be released as part of the expanded RatingDog survey, followed by key inflation data. In Europe, markets will assess inflation dynamics in the eurozone and the region’s largest economies, as well as unemployment and manufacturing activity indicators in Germany and Switzerland. Canadian employment data will also attract attention, adding to the overall picture of the global labor market.

Monday, January 05

On Monday, investors will be watching data on business activity across key economies. A value above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while a value below indicates contraction. Therefore, the growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the national currency, while the decrease of this indicator usually negatively affects the exchange rate.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
– China RatingDog Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 08:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

Tuesday, January 06

On Tuesday, traders will continue to assess data on service-sector business activity. It is worth responding to the same principle. In the US, the ISM report is likely to show another month of declining production and a slight slowdown in service sector activity, which could negatively affect the US dollar.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – UK (MED)
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

Wednesday, January 07

On Wednesday, the most important release for investors will be the Australian Consumer Price Index. November price data is expected to show consumer inflation falling to 3.7% year-on-year. Volatility on currency pairs with the Australian dollar will increase. On Wednesday, two important reports on the US labor market will be released ahead of Friday’s main non-farm payrolls report. Strong data is expected, which could support the US dollar by reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in the first quarter of 2026. Also, traders should not miss the US Crude Oil Inventories data, which has a significant impact on oil prices.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)

Thursday, January 08

A wide variety of news is expected on Thursday. The main ones will be the Swiss inflation data. Consensus points to a small uptick in annual consumer price inflation to 0.1%. This is unlikely to affect the SNB’s interest rate probabilities, but volatility will definitely increase at the time of publication. Mexico will also release consumer price data. A slight increase is expected, which may provide an additional boost to the Mexican peso against the USD.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Average Cash Earnings (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
– Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – SWE (MED)
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (HIGH)
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– Mexican Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2); – MXN (MED)
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)

Friday, January 09

On Friday, all traders’ attention will be focused on the monthly US Nonfarm Payrolls labor market report. The December employment report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls growing by about 57,000, down from November’s 64,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 4.5% from a more than four-year high of 4.6%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to increase by 0.3% m/m and 3.6% y/y, indicating continued inflationary pressure caused by wage growth. A strong report will push back expectations of a rate cut in the first quarter of 2026, which could support the US dollar and put pressure on stock indices. In China, inflation figures are likely to show a decline in both consumer and producer prices. This will increase the likelihood of economic stimulus, which could support Asian indices.

Main events of the day:

– China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– CHA50, HK50 (MED)– China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – NOK (MED)
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
– US Non-Farm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
– US Average Hourly Earnings (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

by JustMarkets, 2025.01.05

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