Week’s main events (October 06 – October 10)

The US government shutdown remains in focus this week, as the protracted deadlock between members of Congress shows no signs of improving. The government slowdown threatens the release of data from federal agencies, including the trade balance, jobless claims, and the budget statement, after the September Non-Farm Payrolls report and other key data have already been postponed. Nevertheless, the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting are still expected to be released this week. Among non-government releases, attention should be paid to the University of Michigan’s October Consumer Sentiment Report. Also on the monetary policy front, the ECB and the Bank of England will publish protocols on their last meetings, while the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) is expected to cut its rate by 0.25% on Wednesday. Inflation data will be presented in Norway, Sweden, and Mexico. Please note that due to the shutdown, US data may be tentative or delayed.

Monday, October 06

On Monday, the European session will see the release of the Eurozone retail sales report, which is expected to rise only slightly (+0.1% m/m). A stronger surprise would support the euro, while weaker data could weigh on the EUR and boost demand for safe havens. Lagarde’s and Bailey’s comments may set the tone for EUR and GBP – hawkish remarks would support the currencies. It’s a bank holiday in China.

Main events of the day:

– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, October 07

On Tuesday, the US and Canada trade balance data are the main drivers. A further increase in the budget deficit could have a negative impact on the value of currencies. But a stronger Ivey PMI data can offset the weak trade balance report and support the CAD. It’s a bank holiday in China.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) (Tentative);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:10 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, October 08

The most important Wednesday release for investors will be the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which will provide more information on policymakers’ outlook for the future trajectory of interest rates. Investors often study meeting minutes in search of some sort of advantage or insight into future rate decisions. Markets now expect the Fed to implement two consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts at its remaining meetings this year. Changes in probabilities may affect the volatility of the US dollar. Also on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold a monetary policy meeting. There is a high probability of a 0.25% rate cut, which could weigh on NZD, while a hawkish surprise would support it. It’s a bank holiday in China.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Average Cash Earnings (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 04:00 (GMT+3);
– RBNZ Rate Statement at 04:00 (GMT+3);
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK FPC Meeting Minutes at 12:30 (GMT+3);
– UK FPC Statement at 12:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

Thursday, October 09

On Thursday, the ECB monetary meeting, Mexico inflation, and Powell’s speech will set the tone. A dovish ECB protocol may have a short-term negative impact on the EUR, while a hawkish one would support it. The Mexican CPI is important for the MXN currency – a higher print would strengthen the peso if Banxico maintains a cautious stance. Powell’s comments could compensate for the lack of US data. Dovish ones would weigh on the US dollar.

Main events of the day:

– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) (Tentative);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, October 10

If the US government ends the shutdown, the delayed monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report for September will be published on Friday. If NFP growth is significantly below expectations (<40,000) and the unemployment rate either rises or remains stable, the market may interpret this as a signal for accelerated monetary policy easing. In this case, the USD will weaken. Additionally, traders should focus on the Canadian labor market data. Weak data will increase the probability of another rate cut by the Bank of Canada, which may put pressure on CAD. It’s a bank holiday in Hong Kong.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) (Tentative);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) (Tentative);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);

by JustMarkets, 2025.10.06

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