Week’s main events (September 15 – September 19)

The Forex market is in for another volatile week. This week, investors should focus on the Interest Rate Decisions from the central banks of the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, and Norway. The US Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada are expected to cut interest rates this week by 0.25%, while other central banks are expected to hold rates at current levels. But there could be surprises in Norway. Special attention should be paid to Jerome Powell’s remarks at Wednesday’s press conference after the interest rate announcement. The real focus will be on projections and the dot plot. There will also be many inflation reports this week, particularly in the Eurozone, Canada, the UK, and Japan. Meanwhile, officials from the US and China will meet to continue discussions on trade relations.

Monday, September 15

On Monday, China is expected to release data on industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment. Stronger readings would boost risk sentiment, supporting Asian equities and commodity-linked currencies, while weaker figures could pressure the yuan and weigh on global markets. Switzerland’s PPI is also in focus, where higher producer prices may give the franc a modest lift, especially against the euro. Later in the day, the Eurozone trade balance will test the euro’s resilience, with a higher surplus supporting the single currency. It’s a bank holiday in Japan.

Main events of the day:

– China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 21:10 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, September 16

On Tuesday, the spotlight shifts to Canada, where CPI inflation is expected to confirm a cooling trend. A weaker print would fuel expectations of further BoC easing, likely pressuring the Canadian dollar, while stronger inflation would support CAD by delaying rate cut bets. In the US, retail sales will provide a key gauge of consumer resilience in the face of high interest rates. A strong outcome would reinforce the strength of the USD and support consumer-related equities, while a weaker result would raise concerns about slowing momentum. In Europe, the UK unemployment rate and the ZEW sentiment surveys from Germany and the Eurozone will also influence GBP and EUR. Analysts expect weak figures, which could potentially have a negative impact on currencies.

Main events of the day:

– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, September 17

Traders can expect a volatile day on Wednesday, with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in the spotlight. Markets expect a 25 bps cut (probability 93.4%), but attention will be firmly on the FOMC’s dot plot and Powell’s comments. Any signal of further rate cuts, which is highly likely, could put additional pressure on the US dollar and Treasury bond yields, providing support for risk assets and gold. Earlier in the day, UK inflation data will test the pound, with core CPI expected to ease slightly from 3.8% to 3.7% y/y. Softer data would raise expectations of a November rate cut from the BoE, weakening GBP, while stronger figures would provide support. Canada’s BoC meeting is also scheduled, where no changes are expected, but there may be surprises in the form of a 0.25% rate cut amid recent weak economic data. A surprise rate cut would have a negative impact on the Canadian dollar.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Economic Projections at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, September 18

Thursday brings the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, with policymakers widely expected to hold rates steady. Still, the MPC minutes and commentary on services inflation will be key: hawkish language could support GBP, while a more dovish tone may pressure the currency. Norges Bank is also expected to keep rates unchanged, but any hint of a shift toward easing would weaken NOK. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s quarterly GDP is forecast at 0.3%. A negative outcome would hit NZD by reinforcing expectations of an RBNZ cut.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Norwegian Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, September 19

Friday’s focus will be on Japan, where the Bank of Japan meeting and outlook report may give clearer signals about a possible rate hike at the next meeting. While no changes are expected this time, hawkish guidance could fuel further JPY strength. However, weak national core inflation data (expected to decline from 3.1% to 2.7% y/y), which will be released a few hours before the Bank of Japan meeting, may have a negative impact on the JPY. In the UK and Canada, retail sales reports will also drive currency moves. Stronger sales would support the GBP and CAD by highlighting resilient consumer demand, while weaker data would weigh on currencies, especially the Canadian dollar, given recent concerns about inflation.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Japan National Core Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.09.15

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