Week’s main events (September 02 – September 06)

The US nonfarm payrolls report will become the week’s main event as it is the most important data for the Fed’s monetary policy decision. Economists believe the labor market will add 164,000 jobs in August after 114,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%, down from July’s 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are expected to be without change at 3.6% y/y in August. The inflation data in Switzerland should also be on the trader’s list. Also, investors should not miss the Manufacturing PMI data in various countries. Falling below 50 is a serious slowdown in the sector, which usually leads to a recession.

Monday, September 02

Typically, Monday is an ordinary trading day with low volatility, but data on business activity in the manufacturing sector may add volatility to the market. It’s a bank holiday in the United States and Canada.

– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, September 03

The main report on Tuesday will be Swiss inflation data. Inflationary pressures are expected to continue to ease. This may have a temporary negative impact on the Swiss currency.

Main events of the day:

– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland GDP (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, September 04

On Wednesday, all investor attention will be focused on the Bank of Canada meeting. Canadian overnight index swaps (OIS) point to a third consecutive quarter-point rate cut. There is a 15% chance of a more substantial 50 bps rate cut. This could put pressure on the Canadian currency. Traders are also advised to follow the data on the number of JOLTs vacancies. The drop in the number will confirm the problems of the US labor market and increase the probability of the US Fed rate cut by 0.5% this month. This will be a strong negative for the USD.

Main events of the day:

– Australia GDP (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, September 05

Lots of different macro statistics will be released on Thursday, but all the reports weigh about the same. At the Asian session, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the RBA head. In Europe, traders should focus on the Eurozone retail sales data. At the American session, it is worth paying attention to the report on US business activity in the services sector from ISM. Traders should also pay attention to the Natural Gas Storage data, which significantly impacts natural gas prices. Gas storages are now fuller than usual, so the increase in indicators may have a negative impact on natural gas prices.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

Friday, September 06

The US Nonfarm Payrolls data will become investors’ most important Friday release, so the volatility can increase. This indicator is also considered by the Fed when adjusting monetary policy. The key US labor market report is expected to be better than the July figures, which may support the US dollar. However, any signs of a weakening labor market could revive fears about the prospect of recession, which had rattled markets in late July and early August. Traders should also not miss the Canadian unemployment data, which strongly influences the Bank of Canada’s policy.

Main events of the day:

– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada FOMC Member Williams at 15:45 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2024.09.02

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