Week’s main events (April 07 – April 11)

No important economic events are expected at the beginning of the week, but the second half of the week promises to be busy. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will hold a monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The RBNZ is expected to cut the rate by 0.25%. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve will also release minutes from its March meeting, which is unlikely to significantly impact the market, as the US Fed may change its position after introducing tariffs on April 2. On Thursday, the US will release consumer inflation data for March. Economists expect core inflation to slow to 2.6% year-on-year from 2.8% in the previous month. China will also release inflation data. Consumer inflation in China will likely come out of deflation in March, and due to the imposed tariffs, price growth will likely continue. The US reporting season for the first quarter of 2025 begins at the end of this week. This will lead to increased volatility in US indices.

Monday, April 07

On Monday, investors will focus on German industrial production data. Production is expected to fall sharply, which may increase the probability of the ECB cutting rates at its next meeting.

Main events of the day:

– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada BOC Business Outlook Survey at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, April 08

On Tuesday, traders may pay attention to Ivey’s business activity data in Canada. Weak data is expected, which may slightly hurt the Canadian dollar.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
– Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, April 09

The main news on Wednesday will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy meeting. The RBNZ is expected to cut the rate from 3.75% to 3.50%. The year-end target rate is seen near 3.0%. The NZD could come under pressure. The FOMC minutes will be looked upon for some color when thinking about the „transitory” impact on prices from tariffs. Traders should not expect a strong increase in volatility. Another interesting report often ignored by traders is Mexico’s inflation data. The Mexican peso (MXN) has been volatile lately due to trade tensions with the US and Banxico’s monetary policy.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

Thursday, April 10

The most essential Thursday release for investors will be the US inflation data (CPI). Analysts expect core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) to fall from 3.0 to 3.1% year-on-year. Main inflation is expected to fall from 2.8% y/y to 2.6% y/y. But analysts warn that inflation could spike later this year because of tariffs. Investors should also pay attention to China’s inflation data. This data has a strong impact on Asian indices as well as the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– China Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Producer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 13:00 (GMT+3);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, April 11

Friday, we will see a number of data releases from the UK, and the main report will be the GDP data. The UK economy is expected to show a slight growth of 0.1%. However, the manufacturing PMI could contract further. Against the background of weak GDP growth, this could have a negative impact on sterling. It is also worth paying attention to the US Producer inflation report. This data is a leading indicator of future consumer inflation. The growth of this indicator may support the US dollar.

Main events of the day:

– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.04.07

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