Week’s main events (October 28 – November 01)

This week’s main events will be data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States, as well as the Bank of Japan interest rate decision. Friday’s jobs report is expected to show that job growth slowed to a more modest 111,000 in October, reflecting the impact of strikes at several large companies, including Boeing. Regarding the Bank of Japan meeting, recent comments from Governor Ueda and other board members suggest that a rate hike is not expected on Thursday when the Bank announces its October decision. Investors should also closely monitor inflation data in Switzerland, the Eurozone, and Australia. Also, heavyweight companies in the US will be reporting this week, which will be reflected in strong volatility in stock indices.

Monday, October 28

No important economic events are expected on Monday that will directly impact the market situation. At the American session, we can pay attention to the speech of the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem.

Main events of the day:

– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, October 29

Tuesday’s main report will be the JOLT’s open jobs report. The market has been reacting very strongly to this data lately. Job openings are expected to drop from 8.04M to 7.92M, which can hurt USD.

Main events of the day:

– German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, October 30

On Wednesday, investors should closely monitor Australia’s inflation data. In annual terms, inflation is expected to fall from 2.7% to 2.3%, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut from the RBA before the end of the year. This may have a negative impact on the Australian dollar. At the European session, traders should pay attention to the data on unemployment in Germany and GDP levels in Germany and the Eurozone. Weak data may hurt the European currency. The US Crude Oil Reserves data, which has an essential impact on oil prices, should also be in focus.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– German GDP (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 14:15 (GMT+2);
– US GDP (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

Thursday, October 31

Thursday will bring various statistics for many countries. In the Asian session, traders will mainly focus on the Interest Rate Decisions from the Bank of Japan. The BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged as the latest inflation data shows a slowdown. Therefore, the main focus will shift to inflation forecasts and BoJ head Ueda’s speeches. Any hints of a rate hike at the next meeting or hints of intervention could give the yen fuel to move higher. In the European session, the Eurozone inflation report will be published. As a rule, this report does not strongly impact volatility with euro pairs, but it may be useful for assessing further ECB monetary policy. Also, on Thursday, the US will release the PCE inflation report, considered the favorite inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve. However, the indicators are expected to remain unchanged, which won’t be helpful to the Fed and investors this time.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

Friday, November 01

The most important Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and the Fed also considers this indicator to adjust monetary policy. After a solid 254k increase in September, the US labor market is forecast to have created 111k new jobs in October, indicating a labor market slowdown. Such a report could spook investors and cause a strong sell-off in indices at the end of the week. Also, on that day, many macro statistics on the Manufacturing PMI data from different countries will be published.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2024.10.28

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