Week’s main events (March 25 – March 29)

On the economic calendar, this week will be much calmer than the previous one, with Friday’s main event being the PCE core price index, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation. It slightly accelerated in January, and forecasts suggest the core PCE rate held steady at 2.8% in February, reaffirming that progress on the inflation front has stalled. Quarterly US and UK GDP data will be released on Thursday, showing how the economy is doing during high rates. Trading activity will decrease at the end of the week ahead of Good Friday.

Monday, March 25

On Monday, the main interest is the Asian session. First, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will publish detailed meeting minutes at which interest rates were raised for the first time since 2007. Singapore inflation data will follow. Inflation is expected to rise annually from 2.9% to 3.2%. Special attention should be paid to the speeches of ECB President Christine Lagarde regarding future monetary policy plans. Currently, economists expect the first rate cut in June.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+2).
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 14:25 (GMT+2);
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 17:20 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, March 26

On Tuesday, investors will focus on the American session, where data on consumer confidence and durable goods orders in the United States will be published. The growth of these indicators usually leads to a strengthening of the US dollar.

Main events of the day:

– Eurozone GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, March 27

Inflation data in Australia will be released on Wednesday. Consumer prices are expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.7% annually. This could bring the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) back to a hawkish mood, increasing the likelihood of the first rate cut in September rather than August. Investors should also keep a close eye on the US Crude Oil Reserves. The situation in the energy market is complicated now.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

Thursday, March 28

The main events on Thursday will be GDP data from the US, UK, and Canada. No significant changes are expected for the US and UK economies, while negative GDP is forecast for the UK, which will confirm that the country is in a state of technical recession. Also of interest to traders may be a report on Australian retail sales, which will show how consumers spend money during high rates. Strong data tends to support the currency and vice versa.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– US GDP (q/q) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

Friday, March 29

Most financial markets will be closed on Good Friday. It’s a bank holiday in the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong and Canada. However, this does not apply to the United States and Japan financial markets. Thus, on Friday, inflation data will be published in Tokyo, a leading indicator of overall inflation in the country. No significant changes are expected compared to the previous month. The US PCE report will be published and included in the Fed’s list of inflation indicators in the American session. It is expected that the PCE index, as of last month, will be 2.4% in annual terms. This will be more positive for the US dollar and negative for the US Indices, as it may push back the first rate cut from the US Federal Reserve. Also, traders should not lose sight of the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell on Friday.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+2);
– US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 17:20 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2024.03.25

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